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Tournament Hand Analysis
$2.20 NL HE MTT: Donk Lead on the Flop
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[QUOTE="dallam, post: 6632465, member: 338743"] We suppose that Hero here is having cards from the higher range of the deck because the 4bb 3-bet, or some Axs ones. Meaning that if Hero call the donk-bet here, Villain has to avoid all of the flush and 10+ combinations to feel safe on the Turn. + A-J: 16 cards + 8-2 (diamonds): 7 cards - 2 cards, if Hero is actually making a call on Flop, cause he cover them =21 cards to avoid + Every 10 and 9 could be good: 4 cards + Every non-flush 8-2: 7x3= 21 cards =25 cards to continuation bet Meaning that 48% of the time villain could hit a favourable card on the Turn. ... In another aspect if you making the call on the flop, Villain's effective stack is going to be almost equal as the size of the pot & so as yours is going to be. Meaining that all the chips are supposed to get them in at one point. And this is where I'm probably tight or becoming tight, since I can accept the volnerability of this exact situation, and as I would feel that I get really lucky by hitting two pairs on the flop. Would not making a huge impact on the 10-9 on the flop, and choose to check it down, and expect to see our Hero raising here because of the possible range considering what he could - and we could have. So by that way, this party won't played on the maximum volume, and I could run away if Hero hits, but still come pull some value I believe. Nevertheless, I'm accepting the donkbet now much better with your explanation here better. May I ask, a 35% pot bet could be working from the Villain insted of the pot-bet, or what number is suitable here? [/QUOTE]
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$2.20 NL HE MTT: Donk Lead on the Flop
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