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Message: [QUOTE="300HPGOD, post: 6651166, member: 305911"] Pre: Depends on how aggressive villain is. If they are someone that is opening 70-80% of buttons then obviously K9 is ahead of that. The problem is that it is 3x and they only have 35 BBs behind so our implied odds are reduced since they are not deep like we are. However, if they are agressive enough and this being a button raise I think defending here makes sense. I would factor in what I know about them post flop as well like am I going to get barreled here and if so do I want to face the music which likely on the flop will be K high. Flop: If we called pre then I think we should be looking for reasons to stay in the hand and not be looking to fold. I wouldnt like facing a pot sized bet here but villain tendencies come into play as well. Is this someone who every time they bet post its for pot? Some are like that which I dont understand but this could be a "normal" sizing for them. It can mean a lot of things and it could just be a bluff as well as the bet does scream please fold so I think its fine to call here if you believe you wont face more action on turn. If you were up against a barreler here then you would have to decide right now if I am going with this or not. That does not mean you would jam here but just means in your mind that you are prepared to call off with second pair. Turn: its a good card for you as it blocks Qx and strengthens your pair of 9s. I think the only play here is to check after that sizing on the flop and see what happens. When villain checks I discount all their Qx minus boats and the boats are limited since we have a 9. Flopped sets would do this as well but are flopped sets betting as large as they did on the flop most of the time? I wouldnt think so since they would not want a fold and sets are limited here as well since we have a set blocker in the 9. I would be feeling good about my hand after pot on the flop and check on the turn by villain. River: The 2 just makes it harder for villain to have something we beat now. Flush got there but its a double paired board so villain should not be aggressive with a flush. I would check here as you did looking to bluff catch. I really think villain does not have much here a vast vast majority of the time so the only thing we could value target would be Ax. Villain should know after we called flop we likely have something that beats Ax. The only down side to checking here imo is that a thinking villain would know we dont ever have a boat either since we checked a street after they checked back. That could mean a thinking villain could value a flush here but I doubt it, I think villain knowing we dont have a boat works to our advantage here since it could lead to them bluffing river. I also discount flushes due to villains bet sizing on flop so to me, Im checking here with the intention of calling off any size bet including a jam because I just dont see what villain would have that would have played this way other than Q2, Q9, 22, 99, and QQ and those are very rare with this runout and our 9. I dont like leading river here because Im not sure what worse would call outside of a chance of Ax but even that should put the pieces together and fold since if we bet river then we can have the boat in our range. I also dont think you could bet and induce anything either so imo best play is to hope for a bluff by villain here and call it off. [/QUOTE]

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