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Poker Strategy
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Tournament Hand Analysis
$2.20 NL HE MTT: Bounty Hunter three-handed on a draw-heavy turn
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[QUOTE="canbora, post: 6916052, member: 9538"] pffff.. ok, MTT PKO is my jam. buttt, as I usually say. If the hand is even here its not so clean cut and dry. I'l admit this is a tough on. I'll also admit, that if you set the entire hand aside except for the turn, yeah.. yeah, Absolutely 110% you have to jam here. Top Top with the nut flush draw. This is the exact scenario I get in all the time. I jam with the best hand, I get called by someone has SOMETHING, bust still is dangerous and has outs if not a draw or smaller draw. And you hope your hand holds, you double up plus get a nice little bounty. Heres the thing. working backwards. You PROBABLY should have jammed on the flop. You had the nut flush daw, overcards, backdoor straight flush draw steel wheel draw, backdoor wheel draw, AND fold equity. And theres preflop. And its raise of fold. Either you jam here, which honestly. I don't advise, at this stake level with someone leading out with a 3.5x open raise. You're beat. I don't care if its suited or not. Big dog probably has AQ or something, maybe AK. Maybe even 99-JJ. Unless you have specific info on this person being a bluffer I'll say 9/10 chance he has one of the hands I listed, and in that order of likelyhood. I'm going with AQ. (bottom of the list is AJ suited, but I doubt it but point is, you're still beat preflop) which leads me to my final comment. You may even want to fold this. Given that you basically know your beat that alone is enough to fold. And especially since you have one more player left to act, AND as you said "its that kind of party" I wouldnt want to roll for my tourney life with A10, suited or not, in a threeway pot. Thats no bueno. Incidently. How I listed things is the order of what I feel is "correctness". Meaning, you probably did the safest and best thing. Like, if I were a GTO bot (haha) I'd list it like this. I'd give the same EV to both jamming on the flop and turn, but I'd give the higher percentage to the turn. Do you know what I mean.? Its like half a notch more correct. So, win or lose, I felt you did the best thing. Good job. Cant wait to hear the results. These things are like my new drama films. lol [/QUOTE]
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$2.20 NL HE MTT: Bounty Hunter three-handed on a draw-heavy turn
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