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Message: [QUOTE="IADaveMark, post: 6375547, member: 490208"] While I'm not with fundiver199 on the possible 4-bet jam on this, I [I]do [/I]agree that this is not the spot. Even with only 50 hands of data on Villain, a VPIP of 22 [I]and a PFR of 10 (?!?)[/I] is very small. Definitely a calling station most of the time. Top 10% of hands is 55+, A8s+, ATo+. That matchup alone has you down 58/42 preflop. Anyway, the interesting part here is the flop. You've got the high end of an OOSD. diver was wrong in saying you have about 33% equity. Using that top 10% range I listed above, you are actually more like 38% at this point. You have 8 outs for the OOSD—assuming that V wouldn't hit a larger straight (e.g. if V has JK and the Q comes). If V hit the board at all, you [I]might [/I]be able to add in the 6 outs for your overcards. However, that's risky to use because if V has AT (for example), hitting your A gives him 2 pair. (Same for V having JT and you hitting your J). Your overcards are square in his range so that's dangerous to count on. The 8 outs gives you about 34% and using those risky overcard outs (14 total) would have been over 50%... but we talked about how we can't consider all of those as good. So between the fact that you might be hosed already and, even on a draw, V might call you just because he is getting short anyway (which kind of drains away your fold equity), a shove doesn't look good here. So back to the idea of calling... Again, you might be behind already, you might get a card that makes you [I]think [/I]you are ahead and you are not (e.g. that 2 pair example), etc. This is more dangerous than it looks like. [I]And [/I]what would V 3-bet with [I]and [/I]lead the flop with 1/2 pot with? With a PFR score of 10%? My guess is you are already behind with an overpair in the neighborhood of QQ+. Maybe JJ? (QQ has blockers on the high end of your straight and JJ is worse because it turns your straights into chops.) He could also have AK here as well which turns all your A draws into losers anyway. That said, given the comparative stack depths, I might peel [I]1 card [/I]off and prepare to eject on the turn. But you're not really getting the odds on those. (Remember that the percent chances to hit I listed above were going all the way to the river, not just the turn. So cut those in half on whether you are going to hit them.) [/QUOTE]

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