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Poker Strategy
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Tournament Hand Analysis
$11 NL HE MTT: Sunday Storm Anniversary: Missed out on some value?
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[QUOTE="300HPGOD, post: 6661953, member: 305911"] Pre flop depends on your villain since this is an UTG open. If you believe they are only opening UTG type hands here then its murky with AQ in this spot off of 40 BBs (also a situation I usually get wrong). I would probably still lean towards 3 betting there with the intention to fold to a 4 bet of any significant sizing. If you feel villain is opening wider than a normal UTG opening range than I like 3 betting more since it you would be ahead more often of that range plus you would get to play heads up in position. Waiting for others to comment on pre flop since I admit I have a lot to learn with respect to these spots off 30-40 BB stacks and AQ AJ type hands. Flop: I would actually bet larger than you did but not signigicantly larger. I think there are plenty of Ax and Kx that will call here so betting something more like 40-45% pot instead of 1/3rd pot will get you more value. Especially if villains dont call double barrels often. Turn: I feel like a bet is a must here since I am less worried about AK with it being on the flop. I like your sizing but I think you could even go 60% here for the same reasons to bet more on the flop and also now 2 hearts (depending on villains) may still come along at 60% pot. River: To me this depends on how good we think villain is since if we think they are good then they arent calling small Ax. That leaves a value target of AJ, A10 and maybe but less likely to call A8. All the smaller Ax then a good player I think folds to a triple barrel except A4 which beats us. If we dont think villain is good then we can bet with a lot more value targets. We would/should know though before we bet what we are going to do if we get stuffed on if we dont bet all in. If we were readless in all aspects on villain than I think its fine to do either bet or check but I lean towards checking since that is just my MO in this spot good or bad. The problem is that unless villain just isnt paying attention or not thinking (maybe they are playing 12 tables and dont notice) but any size bet you were to make on the river other than maybe all in looks super strong being it a triple barrel and a place where you could check it back for showdown value. If villain had seen you bet small before as a bluff then you could bet small here but I do believe going small here makes it look like your hand is nutted which is not what we want, we want to look weak enough that A8 ish calls here. I do think two pair hands raise the turn with 2 hearts coming so I would discount two pair a bit and only leaves A4 as the only two pair combo. The more I think about it, I think if I bet in this spot I just jam it in being it less than pot and hope villain reads it as a bluff. [/QUOTE]
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$11 NL HE MTT: Sunday Storm Anniversary: Missed out on some value?
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