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Poker Strategy
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Tournament Hand Analysis
$109 NL HE MTT: Sunday Million AQ in UTG+1
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[QUOTE="300HPGOD, post: 6497543, member: 305911"] Pre flop: This is more interesting when we are effectively deeper. I think if we were playing 200BB stacks here then raising comes into play more since I would want to find out here as early as possible if I was up against it or not by how villain reacts to my 3 bet. In this case though with this effective stack size I dont see a reason to 3 bet since we the only 4 bet we would face would most likely be a jam and unless you know something about villain I doubt they would 4 bet jam AJ here against an UTG+1 3 bet. Calling is good as you did. Flop: Villain bets less than 1/3rd which I like here with a lot if their range. Given that we have them on an UTG range and them being 27/17 which is not crazy so Im thinking they have only good holdings here that include Ax, big pairs, and possibly a Jack. I dont want A10 or KK type hands should they have them to go anywhere nor do I think villain would think we would raise with a Jack and want to get folds so their potential AK isnt going anywhere. Calling here is the better play by a wide margin imo. Turn: Before I do anything here I'm thinking what UTG range type hand would villain be checking here when a second heart comes and they dont have the Ace of hearts? They have to be worried about some flush draws here where we are less concerned. I would not think Jx checks here (unless it is AJ speciifcally) and gives us a free card (unless maybe they feel we are over agg but I dont know what they think of you) and I also think a lot Ax doesnt check here either. They very well could check here with Ax but I think its a split of some sort and this villain does have 100% turn c bet (just not sure how many instances in 52 hands that accounts for). In thinking they dont have Jx that leaves Ax (AK, AQ, or A10 due to UTG open) or high pocket pairs like QQ (unlikely) or KK, 1010, 99. I think all the pocket pairs fold to a bet here and the Ax hands we are split on. If my range is right then I think betting here nets you little since A10 even at least considers folding and AK does not fold but is trying to get to showdown but we are losing against it I would be as you did and check back. River: Nice card here since I just dont put K10 (especially off) in the villains UTG range. So now I am beating all logical Ax except AQ which is now ever harder to have. As mentioned I feel Jx due to the 2nd heart turn is very unlikely that it checks and I feel like 99, 1010, and even KK here just check since they should just trying to get to showdown with those and knowing any Ax that is logically in our range isnt folding. So to me, Im thinking QQ (highly highly unlikely and I think would bet bigger) or AK or A10. I agree with what Fundiver says in that Ax smaller kicker (although if it isnt lower than a 10 since its UTG, and no Jx so no AJ and AQ is getting hard it really leaves the door open to only AK or A10) wont call but I dont think thier Aces are small here. This seems like a hand where unless we got especially unlucky against QQ or AJ or villain is crafty (over crafty imo) and checked turn with Jx (except AJ) that we are ahead here. Then it comes down to what would call a raise and what wouldnt. I feel like if I am on top of my game here I would range the villain they way I have and put them on a hand where I am ahead 95% of the time and that half of that left could call a raise (AK) then I think I raise here and try and get it. The river is a big difference because it puts us ahead of the AK. If the river was a 6 I would be saying to call here but we are ahead of whats left and as Ive said before my range could be wrong here but if Im going to range someone then Im going to trust my range and I think we can get some more chips on this river. Could be wrong here and they could have AJ or less likely QQ but I think this is a spot where AK is more likely than those two hands and we can get more chips. Maybe a click back raise spot and turn it into a bet fold spot. [/QUOTE]
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$109 NL HE MTT: Sunday Million AQ in UTG+1
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