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Message: [QUOTE="IADaveMark, post: 6427078, member: 490208"] Ok... I'll jump in now that 300 has bounced through. Pre is pretty straightforward. V opens for 2x (smallish?), SB called the extra 1.5. Even without SB in there, this is an obvious 3bet. Normally over a 2bb, I would go up to 5-6bb. I went a little higher than that because of the extra money from the SB but I wasn't as concerned about that since he was OOP and was likely less enamored with his hand and was more likely calling just because he was priced in a bit. Obviously, took note of the fact that V called that which [I]should [/I]put him on a stronger hand. As was mentioned above, AA would likely have 4-bet, so candidates are JJ-KK, AK, AQ, maybe KQo, and maybe JTs+. Again, though, pre-flop the only thing I'm worried about is AA and that is already less likely because of no 4-bet. (BTW, the above puts me a 77% pre. 72% if you include the AA.) The flop is pretty good since it completely misses that entire range above—[I]except for diamonds[/I]. There are a some combos that could give him the flush draw... JdTd+. 2 pairs and straights are likely not an issue because, while he may open with low suited connectors, he very likely isn't calling a 3-bet that size with, for example, 34s, 56s, etc. Same can be said for sets. I'm not putting him on 77, 44, or 33 after the 3-bet pre. So I'm worried about a flush draw or the off chance that he hits a set on the turn while holding JJ, QQ, etc. I bet 3/4 pot which gives him about 2.33. i.e. he needs 43% equity to hit. Given the range above, he only has about 17%. If you simply do the out count without taking into account the range above: [LIST] [*]Diamond draw only = 9 outs = 20% [*]Diamond draw with A = 12 outs = 25% [*]QQ or JJ =8-10% (depending on diamond) [/LIST] That bet isn't giving him the pot odds to call. Given his shove, though, we now have to count 2 streets instead of just 1 to decide if [I]we [/I]are calling. That turns it around so that [I]I need[/I] 45%. [LIST] [*]Diamond draw only = 9 outs = 37% [*]Diamond draw with A = 12 outs = 49% [*]QQ or JJ =10-15% (depending on diamond) [/LIST] That doesn't look quite as sexy but I'm still pretty much solid on the equity front. That and he doesn't have me covered. Given his SPR, he was pretty much pot committed with a simple call of my flop bet so he's just hoping he hits. Going back to some of the comments: As described above, I was thinking like Andyreas said: take it down now and avoid the possible straight and flush draws. That pricing [I]should [/I]have done it from a pot odds standpoint but he not only called, he shoved FWIW. If I bet 1/4-1/2 pot, he has more than enough pot odds to peel and hope for his flush draw. [/QUOTE]

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