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$100 NL HE MTT: Live tournament bubble hand
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[QUOTE="primrose, post: 7148655, member: 1036998"] [B]Preflop: [/B]Love it. If I sufficiently disrespect the blinds, I will raise any two cards on the Button. You have the right mindset. Don't listen to anyone who tells you that you can't do this. (Although raising 22k is probably unnecessary, you can just go 20k. I realize this is basically the smallest raise that doesn't look like a minraise, but you can just minraise, it doesn't look weak if you do it with every hand.) [B]Flop: [/B]Call is good. I'm also not raising. [B]Turn:[/B] Good bet. [B]Turn raise: [/B]Alright so now we have the mess. You've actually excluded important information in this hand, namely the pot size. (BTW this wouldn't happen if you had some kind of semi-standardized way of how to write transcripts; see e.g. [URL='https://www.cardschat.com/forum/tournament-hand-analysis-51/100-10-nl-he-mtt-you-549923/']the way I do it here[/URL].) Which matters because live, people telegraph the strength of their hand by their donking size, as you suggested yourself. Now the pot size depends on whether there's an ante and how large it is. You said 6-handed table, which in my casino means the ante halves. Assuming a half ante, I think the pot size is 22+22+22+5=71 on the Flop. ... which means Villain donked 50 into 71, in a 3way pot. That's pretty big. Not gigatnic, but it's pretty big, and therefore pretty strong. With full ante it would be 50 into 76, and with no Ante 50 into 66. I think this genuinely matters. Agreed. Just because you block the other two sets doesn't mean villain can't have them. It just means there is one combination left rather than 3 (or 2 in total, rather than 6). These are in addition to 6 combinations each of A4 and A9, and 9 of A8. So we have 23 combinations total that make a ton of sense with how Villain played. Not a lot, but not outrageously few, either. There are flush draws and straight draws, but it doesn't matter because villain isn't going to donk a draw and then check-raise it on the Turn. This is far too creative. He might bet-bet (probably much smaller) or bet-check/call, or bet-check/fold, but not bet-check/jam. I'd say this is less likely than him having AA. Maybe a combo-draw does this, [I]maybe[/I], but there are fewer combo draws here than strong Aces. So, I read the result before commenting (you should put the result into spoilers for future posts!), which means I don't know whether I would have called or not. There aren't a lot of two pair, so, maybe. But either way, I disagree with this reasoning; I think a strong Ace here is more likely than a draw. Your opponent should 3bet AK, AQ, AJ... well actually they should also 3bet 27o here because if you open this wide, then 3betting is profitable as a complete bluff. But it's a moot point because they won't do it. So my point is, they can have a strong ace and think it's good. If I call, this is where I put my hopes. Anyway, so should you have folded? With the questionable benefit of hindsight, if this guy is genuinely weak, then, as silly as it is, I'd say, probably yes. Ultimately a weak life player donked big and then check-raised on a pretty dry board, which also has an Ace. So probably this should have been a fold, especially since ICM is also very relevant here, you should have some risk aversion. But ultimately you got stacked with 2pair 60BB deep, so you don't have to feel too bad about it. [/QUOTE]
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$100 NL HE MTT: Live tournament bubble hand
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