$100 NL HE MTT: Live tournament bubble hand

[zyklon0]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Table Format

MTT

Buy-in

100

VP$IP

0

Currency

$

12 players left in a 100 player tournament. First 10 get a prize.

6 playerd at the table
My stack: 950k (chip leader)
Sb: 500k
Bb: 600k
I'm the dealer and everyone folds to me. Blinds 5/10k, I make it 22k with 9 4 off. Just an attempt to steal blinds because both playerd aren't so good.

Both call. Flop comed A 9 4 with 9 and 4 of diamonds. BB betd to 50k. I call. SB folds.

Turn is a 8 rainbow. BB checks, I bet 100k, BB moves all in for about 500k.

I think for a while. I rule out pockets. The bet on the flop was too confident for 88. I block 99 and 44. And with AA, BB would have raised pre. So only possible hands that beat me are A4, A9, A8. And there are flush and straight draws available. On the other hand, we are close to the bubble with decent stacks and this is a very strong all in.

What would you do?

Since I block A4 and A9, I heavily suspect a draw. So I decide to call. BB shows A4 and I lose. Going on to leave the tournament on the bubble a few hands later.

 

[ratbat615]

12 players left in a 100 player tournament. First 10 get a prize.

6 playerd at the table
My stack: 950k (chip leader)
Sb: 500k
Bb: 600k
I'm the dealer and everyone folds to me. Blinds 5/10k, I make it 22k with 9 4 off. Just an attempt to steal blinds because both playerd aren't so good.

Both call. Flop comed A 9 4 with 9 and 4 of diamonds. BB betd to 50k. I call. SB folds.

Turn is a 8 rainbow. BB checks, I bet 100k, BB moves all in for about 500k.

I think for a while. I rule out pockets. The bet on the flop was too confident for 88. I block 99 and 44. And with AA, BB would have raised pre. So only possible hands that beat me are A4, A9, A8. And there are flush and straight draws available. On the other hand, we are close to the bubble with decent stacks and this is a very strong all in.

What would you do?

Since I block A4 and A9, I heavily suspect a draw. So I decide to call. BB shows A4 and I lose. Going on to leave the tournament on the bubble a few hands later.

yep 94 off is a junk hand and you want to raise with something that has show down value , especially when the blinds have you covered . and when you raise with junk be prepared to fold to too much aggression.

 

[primrose]

Preflop: Love it. If I sufficiently disrespect the blinds, I will raise any two cards on the Button. You have the right mindset. Don't listen to anyone who tells you that you can't do this. (Although raising 22k is probably unnecessary, you can just go 20k. I realize this is basically the smallest raise that doesn't look like a minraise, but you can just minraise, it doesn't look weak if you do it with every hand.)

Flop: Call is good. I'm also not raising.

Turn: Good bet.

Turn raise: Alright so now we have the mess.

You've actually excluded important information in this hand, namely the pot size. (BTW this wouldn't happen if you had some kind of semi-standardized way of how to write transcripts; see e.g. the way I do it here.) Which matters because live, people telegraph the strength of their hand by their donking size, as you suggested yourself. Now the pot size depends on whether there's an ante and how large it is. You said 6-handed table, which in my casino means the ante halves. Assuming a half ante, I think the pot size is 22+22+22+5=71 on the Flop.

... which means Villain donked 50 into 71, in a 3way pot. That's pretty big. Not gigatnic, but it's pretty big, and therefore pretty strong. With full ante it would be 50 into 76, and with no Ante 50 into 66. I think this genuinely matters.

The bet on the flop was too confident for 88.

Agreed.

I block 99 and 44. And with AA, BB would have raised pre. So only possible hands that beat me are A4, A9, A8

Just because you block the other two sets doesn't mean villain can't have them. It just means there is one combination left rather than 3 (or 2 in total, rather than 6). These are in addition to 6 combinations each of A4 and A9, and 9 of A8. So we have 23 combinations total that make a ton of sense with how Villain played. Not a lot, but not outrageously few, either.

And there are flush and straight draws available.

There are flush draws and straight draws, but it doesn't matter because villain isn't going to donk a draw and then check-raise it on the Turn. This is far too creative. He might bet-bet (probably much smaller) or bet-check/call, or bet-check/fold, but not bet-check/jam. I'd say this is less likely than him having AA. Maybe a combo-draw does this, maybe, but there are fewer combo draws here than strong Aces.

Since I block A4 and A9, I heavily suspect a draw. So I decide to call.

So, I read the result before commenting (you should put the result into spoilers for future posts!), which means I don't know whether I would have called or not. There aren't a lot of two pair, so, maybe. But either way, I disagree with this reasoning; I think a strong Ace here is more likely than a draw. Your opponent should 3bet AK, AQ, AJ... well actually they should also 3bet 27o here because if you open this wide, then 3betting is profitable as a complete bluff. But it's a moot point because they won't do it. So my point is, they can have a strong ace and think it's good. If I call, this is where I put my hopes.

Anyway, so should you have folded? With the questionable benefit of hindsight, if this guy is genuinely weak, then, as silly as it is, I'd say, probably yes. Ultimately a weak life player donked big and then check-raised on a pretty dry board, which also has an Ace. So probably this should have been a fold, especially since ICM is also very relevant here, you should have some risk aversion.

But ultimately you got stacked with 2pair 60BB deep, so you don't have to feel too bad about it.

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
I understand, what you are trying to do here, but jumping right to the results, I think, both you and kdmeteor miss one of the issues with bad hands, which is, that they always offer reverse implied odds, especially when stacks are kind of deep. Of course 50-60BB is not really deep, but for a tournament on the bubble its very deep.

The reverse implied odds comes from the fact, that even when bad hands hit the board hard, they have far more risk of being at the bad end of a cooler. They make bottom two pair, they make trips with a bad kicker, they make a bad straight, they make a bad flush. So I would just fold here, and then of course the rest of hand would not have happened.

Flop
I will trust kdmeteor here, that the sizing is probably a sign of strength in a live game (not so much online), and in that case its definitely just a call. And we should also be thinking already about the fact, that we might not always want to play for stacks, since the Stack to Pot ratio is at least 8, and this being the bubble the Villain is likely not stacking off a single pair for 60BB.

Turn
When he donk out on the flop and check turn, it looks a lot like, he has a flushdraw, so I would definitely bet here for value. However when he check-jam, I think, you need to find a fold. I agree with kdmeteor, that its highly unlikely, he takes such a "fancy" line with a flushdraw, and I also dont think, this is ever a worse made hand than yours.

From the way, you describe your thought process, I think, you are getting way to caught up with the idea of blockers. Yes you do somewhat significantly block sets, but you only block 1/3 of the combos of A4 and A9, and you dont block A8. So there are still 1+1+ 6+6 (+9) = 14 (23) logical combos of value, that you lose to. I put A8 in brackets, because maybe he dont always donk out big on the flop with that hand. And if these strong made hands are the ones, that are most consistent with his action, then its highly likely, he has one of them.

It reminds me of something, Joe Stableton once said on the TV poker show "Big Game": "I dont think, Phil (Helmuth) has a feeling, he (Donni Stern) is bluffing, I think, he WANTS him to be bluffing". In this hand it seems like, you WANTED your opponent to be on a draw, and for that reason you were looking for ways to justify, that he was probably on a draw rather than looking objectively at the situation. Hand starts at 12:00.

 

[primrose]

From the way, you describe your thought process, I think, you are getting way to caught up with the idea of blockers. Yes you do somewhat significantly block sets, but you only block 1/3 of the combos of A4 and A9, and you dont block A8. So there are still 1+1+ 6+6 (+9) = 14 (23) logical combos of value, that you lose to. I put A8 in brackets, because maybe he dont always donk out big on the flop with that hand. And if these strong made hands are the ones, that are most consistent with his action, then its highly likely, he has one of them.

It reminds me of something, Joe Stableton once said on the TV poker show "Big Game": "I dont think, Phil (Helmuth) has a feeling, he (Donni Stern) is bluffing, I think, he WANTS him to be bluffing". In this hand it seems like, you WANTED your opponent to be on a draw, and for that reason you were looking for ways to justify, that he was probably on a draw rather than looking objectively at the situation. Hand starts at 12:00.

I think this is a good take. Agree with the overemphasis on blockers.

And the other thing is, A8 is top pair on the Flop, so the donk isn't that outlandish. It's not like he donked a middle pair big and then picked up two pair. (But of course he ended up having A4, which is pretty much the hand that makes the most sense.)

 

[zyklon0]

Thank you for the insights! I agree that I probably should have folded to the re raise. At least good to know that the rest of the play wasn't that bad. People really reacted when I turned over 9 4 after a pre flop raise 😁

 

[primrose]

Thank you for the insights! I agree that I probably should have folded to the re raise. At least good to know that the rest of the play wasn't that bad. People really reacted when I turned over 9 4 after a pre flop raise 😁

So what type of Ante do you have, if any?

 

[makisaa]

We can say that you risked the game, just at the bubble, because you tried to play 94 with 94 on board, and the opponent goes all in. He might has something very good here, but he had another two pairs with an ace! Unfortunate situation, you played your game and you lost, next time you might be lackier!

 

[eetenor]

12 players left in a 100 player tournament. First 10 get a prize.

6 playerd at the table
My stack: 950k (chip leader)
Sb: 500k
Bb: 600k
I'm the dealer and everyone folds to me. Blinds 5/10k, I make it 22k with 9 4 off. Just an attempt to steal blinds because both playerd aren't so good.

Both call. Flop comed A 9 4 with 9 and 4 of diamonds. BB betd to 50k. I call. SB folds.

Turn is a 8 rainbow. BB checks, I bet 100k, BB moves all in for about 500k.

I think for a while. I rule out pockets. The bet on the flop was too confident for 88. I block 99 and 44. And with AA, BB would have raised pre. So only possible hands that beat me are A4, A9, A8. And there are flush and straight draws available. On the other hand, we are close to the bubble with decent stacks and this is a very strong all in.

What would you do?

Since I block A4 and A9, I heavily suspect a draw. So I decide to call. BB shows A4 and I lose. Going on to leave the tournament on the bubble a few hands later.

The blinds have enough chips to not overfold to a btn open. that should affect our open range greatly yes, we can widen it but not to 9-4 off
I think another solid point here is that you really do not have an any two cards stack size here even though you are chip leader.
Both Blinds have over half your stack which means if you lose you drop down to what happened to you--- going broke before getting paid.

 

[eetenor]

Reflecting further on this spot I think we all need to not think about this being a min cash mistake---

"I was agg and blew the min cash"

---You were the chip leader- playing the 94 cost you a potential top 3 finish, if not a win. That is a big leak in our game - risking that kind of finish for a low upside--winning the blinds

It is literally why the ICM model has us play tighter vs the larger stack sizes.

 

[SpanRmonka]

I'd like to add something, which may or may not be the case here, but I see people type similar a lot, and also I used to do this to an extent too.

Deciding that players aren't very good. This in itself isn't that helpful. Are thye too tight, do they call until the river way to often, do they always have it if they bet river etc

Poor players over call, get out of line, and put you in bad spots when ICM is crucial. What you need in order to make this play, is other players who you know overfold and do not defend their blind to essntially a min raise, or players who you play as a bit of an open book post flop.

You may have thought these players are those types, but the hand didn't turn out that way in our sample size of 1, which is all I have to go on.

In my experience of roughly ths level of live play a min raise would get called by almost any 2 in most BB's when this deep.

 

[SpanRmonka]

Reflecting further on this spot I think we all need to not think about this being a min cash mistake---

"I was agg and blew the min cash"

---You were the chip leader- playing the 94 cost you a potential top 3 finish, if not a win. That is a big leak in our game - risking that kind of finish for a low upside--winning the blinds

It is literally why the ICM model has us play tighter vs the larger stack sizes.

This is massively key. To add to this, we play poker for the fun too right, its exciting, and most of us don't play live much.

Live FT's, even removing the money, although that is of course what makes the blood flow, are the goal of Live poker, cos they are so much fun, packed with adrenaline, and for me, the reason to play. Everything kinf of resets, and thats now all that matters.

As Dara O Kearney says, about high ICM decisions, "losing hurts more than winning feels good". It serves as a reminder when making marginal or questionable decisions, that in a lot of cases, the fold is 'more right'

 

[primrose]

What you need in order to make this play, is other players who you know overfold and do not defend their blind to essntially a min raise, or players who you play as a bit of an open book post flop.

You may have thought these players are those types, but the hand didn't turn out that way in our sample size of 1, which is all I have to go on.

... yes it did? Like, this is exactly how your typical overly-honest-scared-calls-too-wide-preflop-and-plays-like-an-open-book-postflop (i.e., your typical live tournament player) would play. They flopped a premium, donked it big, and then check-jammed.