€100+10 NL HE MTT: Sometimes you don't need to tell a story to bluff

[primrose]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Table Format

MTT

Buy-in

100+10

Currency

€

This was a fun hand that I've played in a tournament yesterday. I don't know how applicable this is to online play, but live you should make this kind of move... well, not very often, but a little more than never.

I have on the BN. Blinds are 300/600 with a 600 big blind Ante (which makes it very tempting to join the hand). It folds to the CO, who limps. I was going to minraise this, but now I would have to raise much bigger to get the CO out, and I don't want to do that (he could have a strong hand). But I think I can realize more than 20% equity of this pot in position with an unsuited connector in position, so I limp as well. (The reason not to do this is if you can get squeezed, but all of these are very passive players.) SB completes and BB checks.

No one is very deep stacked here -- I think I have the most, the others probably have 6000-12000, I don't exactly remember.

Flop comes (Pot=3000). It checks to me. This doesn't look like a very profitable spot to bluff after I've limped, so I check as well.

Turn comes (Pot=3000). It checks to me again. This spot is better to bluff but still not amazing, and I of course have no equity. I check as well.

River comes (Pot=3000). It checks to me.

Alright, so what should we do here? If we check, we might have a 4-way split, unless someone has a small pair. But also, we know no one has anything of this board. People are not going to check a Q or an A three times; it's just not gonna happen. And even the 4 is very likely to bet this River.

So, can we put in a little half pot bluff here to pick up this pot? Well, a half-pot bet needs to work 33% of the time. Will it? It's hard to say. The problem is that it looks so much like a steal that the CO could just decide to call for a chop, even if he's playing the board. And a pocket pair is very likely to call. So, eh. It could work, but it's not super great.

On the other hand -- no one has anything! So isn't there anything we can do?

I think you know where this is going. I bet 4500 and everyone folds. A 1.5x Pot bet has to work 60% of the time, but I think it's going to work a lot more than that. It's just so hard to see who would ever call me here. It doesn't matter that my story doesn't make sense because these people just aren't going to call off half their stack without having a hand. This is after the rebuy period, so if you bust, you have to go home.

Of course if you do do this, you must never show the hand. Don't rub it in. Just calmly muck and move on to the next hand.

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
I understand the rationale for limping behind, but in an online game I would just fold. Especially if everyone has 10-15BB, because then two limps set the blinds up for a very profitable jam.

Flop
Even though it checked to you, I dont think, we can rule out, that someone hit this board. The blinds might check their entire range, even though its a limped pot, and even CO could also be slowplaying trips or pot controlling with a weak ace. And of course if you get called by either a Q or an A, you are basically drawing dead. So I would also check back here basically with a mindset of giving up.

Turn
When everyone check again, its really starting to look like, nobody has either a Q or an A, so I would not mind to use your position to start a bluff now. If someone has a 4 (most likely big blind) or a small pocket pair, they might call one bet but then give up, if you fire again on the river.

River
When everyone check again, I think, we can pretty much rule out, that anyone as a full house, and even an ace seems pretty unlikely to still not have bet at any point. So it really seems like, everyone are capped at a small pair like 55-88 at best, and their most likely hand is something, that is playing the board. I dont think, someone will call just for a chop, and even if they do, well then you chop. So I am ok with this bluff, although I dont know, if its really nessesary to overbet the pot, or if you could not have gotten it away for something slighly smaller like 80-100% pot.

 

[fundiver199]

Also I am not even sure, you are "not telling a story" here. I think, a 4 could realistically play this way but probably not a Q or an A. So you are mostly saying, that you had nothing on the flop but backed into a full house.

 

[primrose]

Yeah both fair points. 90% pot bet would probably work too, just don't go half pot.

 

[fundiver199]

Yeah both fair points. 90% pot bet would probably work too, just don't go half pot.

I agree with that. You dont want to induce someone (most likely CO since he is last to act) to get curious and call for a chop, so that you only win half the pot rather than the whole pot. By going large there is also a higher chance to get someone to actually fold a better hand like 55 or 66, especially the players in the blinds, who are not closing the action.