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Message: [QUOTE="primrose, post: 7128868, member: 1036998"] Still unsure about the Turn so I decided to look at it myself a little more Say my opponent defends this range: [ATTACH type="full"]385002[/ATTACH] Now I have them calling the Flop bet with with any pair, flushdraw, OESD, gutshot, or set (not two pair, those probably raise right away). [ATTACH type="full"]385010[/ATTACH] This range has this breakdown on the Turn: [ATTACH type="full"]385009[/ATTACH] So there are 45 flushdraws, 20 OESDs and 31 gutshots for a total of 96 draws among 289 combos. Of those 8 also have the Ace, so that's 88 combos of draws that I'd like to bet against. Then there are also 20 combinations of 88, 77 and stronger 6s, which might fold. So let's say 108 combinations where betting is good. Conversely, we have 4 sets, 15 two pairs, 8 top pairs, and 84 middle pairs, for a total of 111 combinations where betting is bad because they're beating me and I don't think they're folding (the stronger hands that might fold are the 20 combinations I've mentioned above). Of course the amount that these bets are good vs. bad is not necessarily the same. If I am betting the turn, I'm betting it for at most 4000, so I'm not losing that many chips. So betting the turn into a stronger hand is... let's say -3500 EV (not -4000 since I could always spike a second pair on the River). Betting against a draw is... very hard to say actually. Flopzilla doesn't let me filter out the Aces which are now top pairs out of the draws. But let's assume the draws have about 30% equity, rounded up a little because they could also bluff when missing, which I don't want either. If a bet folds those out then it's worth about 3800. Much more than that against the 20 combinations of stronger pairs that might fold. All of this is a back of the envelope calculation... which unfortunately is so close that you could easily get a different answer by tweaking some of the assumptions. I guess I'm somewhat leaning toward not betting now because defending all gutshots is a bit wide and if they defend less then betting gets worse. If they defend some random Ace high hands, betting also gets worse. But seems very close ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Argument for betting is that sometimes people panic and do really weird things, like it's not actually out of the question that someone folds a Queen there. [/QUOTE]

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