€100+10 NL HE MTT: To barrel or not to barrel?

[primrose]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Table Format

MTT

Buy-in

100+10

Currency

€

This is hand from today's twice-weekly Casino tournament. We're on the final table and I'm chipleader.

Villain limps (2000) from UTG+3 with a stack of 41100 (20.5 BB). They're an older guy who plays like the stereotypical older guy. I'm in the HJ with . I raise to 6100. It folds back to Villain, who just calls.

Flop comes (Pot=17200). Villain checks. I have nothing, but this won't stop me from cbetting vs. a limper. I bet 4000. There is no reason to go larger; Villain will just fold this if he has missed it. He calls.

Turn comes the (Pot=25200). Villain checks. This is the critical point of the hand -- what now?

I think there are only two lines that make sense. One is to give up. Giving up here is a totally fine thing to do. Given the early-position-limp range, Villain is quite likely to have hit the King. He's likely calling a second bet. Which means you can never barrel the turn with the intention of checking the River.

The other line is to bet with a sizing that sets up a chunky River jam. Villain has capped his range with the limp+call play, and (especially if he just calls again) he's very unlikely to have more than one pair, probably a King -- because sets and two pair would raise, and also there aren't many two pairs in his range. Also, and this is the most important part, it's likely not a good King because the good Kings might have raised preflop. The most likely hand is something like KT or maybe KJ.



I almost give up but decide to go for it. Villain has about 30000 behind, so I do some rough math and bet 8000. Villain calls.

River is the (Pot=41200). Villain checks. The important part about this card is, it's not a broadway. With a T, J,or Q, Villain would be quite likely to have two pair and I'd probably give up. With an Ace I would likely be ahead and would check behind for that reason. But this isn't that, so I go for it and go all-in (covering Villain with his 23000 stack). Villain audibly sighs and then folds.

Usually I post hands where I'm unsure if I did something wrong; here I'm pretty confident that this was the right play (though feel free to disagree). I don't get to run this play a lot (I very rarely try to get people to fold top pair), but this was an almost perfect spot for it, where my opponent capped their range to one pair, my line looked convincing, and there was ICM pressure. Like I said it doesn't happen a lot, but if you never triple-barrel bluff, then you don't do it enough, especially against weak live competition.

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
Like isolating and the sizing.

Flop
I agree, you dont need to go all that large here. I personally tend to go a pitch larger, but whatever. Its also not totally unreasonable to check back, since ATo has showdown value. He propably dont limp AJ or AQ, so you beat all his unpaired hands.

Turn
Here is, where I tend to disagree with your line. I dont think, stacks are deep enough to run a tripple barrel bluff, and I also think, you have the wrong hand. You did not pick up any equity, and you still have decent showdown value. Just because he called on the flop, does not mean, he has top pair or any pair. There are lots of draws or even worse A high, that can and should call as well, especially when you went so small. So I would check back here and then look to play a river.

River
As played you have to follow thought on your plan and go for it. But I am not convinced, he folded top pair, unless he showed it to you. I still think, there are tons of other hands, he could have, that play like this and give up at the end. Including some, that you beat, like A2/A3/A6/A7 of spades, QT/QJ of spades and so on and so forth.

 

[primrose]

He did not show the King, but I would be quite surprised if he didn't have it both based on live tells and game mechanics.

Live tells: just, if people fold a missed draw they just muck immediately, often they muck as soon as they see you grabbing chips, before you've made the bet. They don't pretend to be making a hard choice.

Mechanics: Low suited Aces have no business limping 20 BB deep. You could say, okay so what he's not a good player, he can overvalue them. But overvaluing weak hands isn't really the mistake that this player type makes. I'd guess you're way overestimating the number of draws in his range. Broadway spades, yes, but there are like 8 combinations of those.

The guy also does not think, "this is a 25% pot bet, I should continue wide". He very likely does not know the exact size of the bet in relation to the pot, especially not at the Turn and River.

 

[fundiver199]

Live tells: just, if people fold a missed draw they just muck immediately, often they muck as soon as they see you grabbing chips, before you've made the bet. They don't pretend to be making a hard choice.

Fair point but he could also have a weak pair like A8, T9 of spades, A5 of spades, where he could bluffcatch but decide to not risk the rest of his chips. In the latter case the sigh could be "I was trying to make a flush not 4. pair". But if people regularly fold top pair in a pot, where the stack to pot ratio is only 2, and no obvious draws have completed, then we should probably all go and play low stakes live tournaments like this

Mechanics: Low suited Aces have no business limping 20 BB deep.

No hands should be limping. Its not like, its any better to limp KQo or KJo than A5s.

The guy also does not think, "this is a 25% pot bet, I should continue wide". He very likely does not know the exact size of the bet in relation to the pot, especially not at the Turn and River.

I think, that is probably true for a lot of live players. Its obviously easier to keep track of the size of the pot online, because its a number on your screen right in front of you.