$10 NL HE MTT: Learn from the opponents - how to (not) play a big combodraw

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fundiver199

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Continuing with the theme of learning from others mistakes, here is an example of how to not play a big combodraw. Ignoring preflop it would have been reasonable for 87 of spades to jam, when the action got to him on the flop, since there was only a little more than a pot sized bet left, and at this point he has fold equity and two chances to hit one of his 15 outs.

However as played, when he face a jam and a call on the turn, he need to make a disciplined fold. This might sound crazy, because he is getting 3:1 and only need 25% equity, and with 15 outs he should have more than this right? Wrong. The first and most obvious problem is, that the board is now paired, so he could be drawing dead already, which he actually was.

But its more than just this. Because of the multiway action there will be some non-zero percentage of the time, where he is against a made hand and a better draw, in which case a lot of his outs are dead. Lets say one opponent has ATo for top pair, and the other have QJ of spades. Then he only have 14% equity. I plugged the hand into Equilab, and against two pretty wide but realistic ranges, he have 20% equity, which is far less than the 25%, he needs to make just a break even call.

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CRStals

CRStals

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Thing is - there are some players that are going to take that combo draw to showdown every single damn time, irregardless of what you or others do before that point. The fact that they were willing to call on the turn with that after limping pre, and knowing that you didn't have a pot sized bet behind them, they knew they were getting 3 to 1 on any turn bet given both stacks were covered and just below pot.

Why 85o is limping to start with is beyond me...but what do they say - never go broke on a limped pot pre? Nice snag for you
 
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fundiver199

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CRStals said:
Why 85o is limping to start with is beyond me...but what do they say - never go broke on a limped pot pre? Nice snag for you
Click to expand...
85o should obviously never have been in the hand to begin with and also not have overcalled my flop bet with bottom pair. Kind of glossed over that, because I think, its fairly obvious, and hopefully nobody in this poker forum would make such fundamental mistakes? On the turn he was just coolered though. Checks to him, turned trips, pot sized bet left. Easy shove, but unfortunately for him I was slowplaying a boat. He was not drawing dead though. Could have made quads.... :)
 
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