$1 NL HE MTT:

[I Live Poker]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Table Format

MTT

Buy-in

1

VP$IP

64

PFR

7

Game Options

1. Deep Stacked
2. Turbo

Currency

$

In this lucky hand a doubt arose about the implied odds, on the flop I paid approximately 10% of my stack to see the turn, how much % of the stack is appropriate to pay for implied odds?


888Poker, $0.91 + $0.09 - Hold'em No Limit - 50/100 (12 ante) - 9 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG: 18,505 (185 bb)
UTG+1 (Hero): 19,371 (194 bb)
MP: 9,194 (92 bb)
MP+1: 13,495 (135 bb)
LP: 12,229 (122 bb)
CO: 9,812 (98 bb)
BU: 8,003 (80 bb)
SB: 9,846 (98 bb)
BB: 19,545 (195 bb)

Pre-Flop: (258) Hero is UTG+1 with 2♣ 2♠
1 fold, Hero raises to 220, 1 fold, MP+1 3-bets to 1,040, LP calls 1,040, 4 players fold, Hero calls 820

Flop: (3,378) T♠ 6♠ T♦ (3 players)
Hero checks, MP+1 bets 2,000, LP calls 2,000, Hero calls 2,000

Turn: (9,378) 2♥ (3 players)
Hero checks, MP+1 bets 10,443 (all-in), LP calls 9,177 (all-in), Hero calls 10,443

River: (39,441) K♦ (3 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: 39,441

Showdown:
MP+1 shows J♠ J♥ (two pair, Jacks and Tens)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 66%, Flop: 82%, Turn: 10%, River: 0%)

UTG+1 (Hero) shows 2♣ 2♠ (a full house, Twos full of Tens)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 14%, Flop: 8%, Turn: 86%, River: 100%)

LP shows 7♠ 7♣ (two pair, Tens and Sevens)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 20%, Flop: 10%, Turn: 5%, River: 0%)

UTG+1 (Hero) wins 39,441

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
Standard open, fold to the 3-bet.

Flop
Easy fold especially multiway.

 

[DaMooca]

Sure you have almost 200 blinds, but spending 30 blinds to see if you hit a set?? 😕
In the long run, it seems to me to be a very poor move, because if I'm not mistaken, we're going to hit a set 1 out of 10 times.
And the times we get it right, it's still not sure that we're going to pull the other player's entire stack.

 

[puzzlefish]

The idea (set mining) is to pay if you can win at least 10 times as much as you put in, right? That's for pre-flop action. You paid 10bb to potentially win 200+bb assuming you can take both LP and MP+1 to the cleaners. Maybe around 120bb for one of them.

On the flop, you have to pay 20bb for an extra card. Here is where I will play devil's advocate, maybe incorrectly. This is comparable to paying 30bb for a 4 card flop, with both players still in it, so still 250bb or so to win. Which would be equivalent to paying on average 22.5 BB for a 3 card flop to still win 250bb.

So to me it still looks worth going for the turn at this price. On average you're still putting in enough to still win 10 times what you pay. And on top of everything there is a pair on the board, which is excellent in terms of our implied odds should we hit the 2 on the turn.

Maybe it doesn't quite apply once everyone has information on the flop, but I think given the betting action nobody has the nuts and we're just drawing another card, are we not?

 

[fundiver199]

On the flop, you have to pay 20bb for an extra card. Here is where I will play devil's advocate, maybe incorrectly. This is comparable to paying 30bb for a 4 card flop, with both players still in it, so still 250bb or so to win. Which would be equivalent to paying on average 22.5 BB for a 3 card flop to still win 250bb.

So to me it still looks worth going for the turn at this price. On average you're still putting in enough to still win 10 times what you pay. And on top of everything there is a pair on the board, which is excellent in terms of our implied odds should we hit the 2 on the turn.

The problem is, that if the turn gets bet by someone, we will need to fold, and then our chance of spiking a set is only 2:47 or a little over 4%.

 

[puzzlefish]

The problem is, that if the turn gets bet by someone, we will need to fold, and then our chance of spiking a set is only 2:47 or a little over 4%.

I think this is always the risk that is accepted with set mining when going for the flop, in that if you miss you would usually fold. I'm not advocating going fishing all the way to the river here by any means, but that on average getting to the turn here isn't as bad as it may initially seem. Especially when it could turn us a full house versus overpairs, flushes, trips, etc.

 

[fundiver199]

I think this is always the risk that is accepted with set mining when going for the flop, in that if you miss you would usually fold.

Yes and this is why, we calculate with seeing 3 cards, when we setmine preflop. And in the same fashion we only calculate with seeing one more card, if we setmine on the flop.

 

[dallam]

For me, 22 is not even playable that deep from this position - and the reason for it I don't get the aim with this combination. We don't need to steal the blinds, so we wanna have some winning parties. Its pretty much sure it will be a multiway flop or someone is trying to 3-bet you cause you are that deep.
So at the end of the pre actions, we will have a weak pre hand, bad position and invested chips to a multiway or serious chips to arrive flop already in disadvantage.

Also wanna add MP will not bluff it that hard on this flop in normal circumstances, overpair or sthg like 99, 88 is what invisible I put this person in,and the other one's call make it impossible to go along with them ever.

Ty for the post, for me the key was in the pre-flop decision, good luck!