€1.5 NL HE MTT: Is this normal with 4 outs preflop, he to have 31.7equity

[budaloto]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Table Format

MTT

Buy-in

1.5

Currency

€

I'm so shocked when saw this equity when he has 4outs, straight is blocked in many way, only flush 4 cards drop. BTW i loss K was droped on flop.

 

[yomarianob]

Very surprising indeed! I thought the numbers were wrong, but checked and they are correct.

Maybe it's because he has flushes with 4 hearts or 4 clubs... some straights still possible (2 tens and 2 queens alive, and A to 5) and the 4 outs. Interesting.

 

[primrose]

Not surprising to me. The straight blocking is super marginal; the big story here is that they all block each other's outs. There's only 2Q, 1A, and 3K left in the entire deck. That's as many outs as regular AK has against TT, so consequently, TT should have similar equity here as if it's running against only AK. (And of course the AQ's only win with the Q, so only two outs for them.)

 

[Goggelheimer]

The calculation seems ok.
But I bet on GG the flop would bring a K or the remaining A, lol.

 

[fundiver199]

AK has around 45% equity preflop against TT with 6 outs. So makes complete sense, that it goes down to 30%, when 2 of the outs are dead. There are also 4 less unseen cards, which explain, why the equity is on the high side of 30%. 4 outs from 44 unseen cards is not quite 33% less than 6 outs from 48 unseen cards.