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Poker Strategy
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Tournament Hand Analysis
$1.10 NL HE MTT: BTN vs SB
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[QUOTE="fundiver199, post: 6549572, member: 397965"] Preflop You are deep yourself, but the effective stack size is only 27BB, and then a 3BB open is very large. Sometimes between a min-raise and 2,5BB is more "correct". Maybe not so important here, because you can afford to lose that extra bit of chips, and SB is probably not rejamming as wide, as a good player would. But still something to keep in mind, if you are trying to improve and move up. Flop Normally you are "allowed" to C-bet a lot of A high boards, but here I see a number of issues. The first one is, that the SPR is very low. Around 2,4 against BB, and less than 2 against SB. So you dont have a lot of room to maneuver here, and if one of them connected, they will likely just go with their hand rather than just call. The other problem is, that this is a very low buyin, and for that reason I would expect SB to call with a lot of bad AX hands, he should either have jammed or folded. And finally you have two opponents rather than one, which dubble the chance someone connected with the board and wont fold. So my preferred play here is to check back and take a free card. And if I face a turn bet unimproved, I will just cut my losses and get out. My second favourite line would be to make a much smaller C-bet like 300-400 rather than almost 700. You are really just trying to fold out hands, that missed completely, and you dont need to bet almost 70% pot to acheive that. You do make a large bet though, and then SB essentially check-jam, although for whatever reason he is leaving himself 261 chips behind. The ability to win his bounty does give you better pot odds, but you are crushed by any made hand, and you are even behind to some draws like KQ, KT or K9 of hearts. Calling an all-in is basically a math based decision, so lets pull out Equilab and see, how you do against some realistic ranges. If I give him A2-AJ, 33-44, 43s, 65s and any reasonable heartdraw, then you only have 10,3% equity. One might argue, that this is kind of a worst case scenario, since I gave him almost every single AX combo. But even if I take out A2o and A5o-A9o assuming, he either fold those pre or just check-call the flop, your equity only rises to 12,9%. So even without getting into calculating your actual pot odds including the bounty, this is not a good call. [/QUOTE]
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$1.10 NL HE MTT: BTN vs SB
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