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Message: [QUOTE="fundiver199, post: 7196960, member: 397965"] If we start by giving the opponent a range of only strong made hands, which will be all the straights, all the two pair except K9 and K7 (because of the big flop bet) and 77 (99 and TT probably raise pre), then we have 25% equity. If we add in KQ and KJ for some more thin value bets with top pair, we have 27%. However if we also give him draws, then we have a lot more. Because he got to see a free flop, he can basically have anything, so all the flushdraws and also all the unpaired 8X, which is an OESD. If he bluff with all of these, we actually have 54% equity, so we are not even behind. In reality he is probably not bluffing for this sizing with all his draws, so a realistic estimate is closer to 27% than 54%. But since we only need 30%, it is to tight to fold on the turn. [/QUOTE]