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Message: [QUOTE="Mr_Nuisance, post: 6270402, member: 481402"] [b]1/22-1/23 Results[/b] 1/22-1/23 Results: [B]2-7[/B] NFL Results: [B]2-7[/B]Overall W/L: [B]2-7[/B] For my first week posting picks, I don't think it could have gone more wrong than it did. The two successful picks from the past weekend were Aaron Jones and Mike Evans, both of who had amazing games. As for the rest of my picks... well there is always next week. This is why I like to justify my logic with who I pick because some people will just post the lines they are choosing and have no backing as to why that is. Sometimes, it just does not pan out the way that you expect for a week, but that is when you just move on to the next one and try to rebound. Here is some math behind the parlays that are offered on Underdog: For a 5 player parlay, it will pay 20x your money if your bet is a winner. So if you were to wager $5 on a parlay, it will pay you $100 on a win. What this means is that you only have to win 1 out of every 20 parlay bets to be breakeven if you bet the 5 player parlay. If you average 2 wins out of every 20 bets, you would be a profitable bettor. The same logic applies to the other multiplier amounts, you just have to win 1 out of x times in order to breakeven. Through a purely mathematical logic, if every bet (over/under on a specific player) were exactly 50% chance of over and 50% of under, it means that you have .5^5 chance of hitting all five correctly on a parlay (Approx. 3.125%). So essentially, your win chances are less than the 5% that you pay in order to make the wager. That is where betting apps make their money. That is where making educated guesses on picks and knowing everything about a game and who is playing is extremely valuable in order to give you the edge to win more than 5% of the time in order to be profitable. I will have picks for this upcoming week on a couple night where I have time to research, they will most likely include both football and basketball, so stay tuned in order to see my predictions! [/QUOTE]

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