How do you evaluate variance in online poker?

[ZenonBR]

With your current experience in online poker, how do you evaluate the influence of variance on your results and success in the game?

Do you suffer from this?

My current experience, I mean, based on the accounts I have on the platforms, the game usually behaves like this: several minutes or hours waiting for equity hands like AKs, AQs, AJs or pairs AA, KK, QQ, top of the range, but this takes a long time, so when these hands appear, I enter with a raise as per the rule, and these hands when they are not pairs like AKs, AQs do not connect on the flop, or when they are AA, the villains at the entire table fold, even if they limp to trap, it is the same, what I mean is that the variance is huge, today my vision is just to play for fun, because the huge variance in the game is enough for few to think about really becoming professionals with it.

And how do you see the variance in poker, is it high or do you go through the same situation?

 

[mrfastflow]

Variation on also cooler, flips and whether cards favor you when you play better or worse

 

[MK_]

I would describe variance as the difference between expected results versus actual results.......,

not every loss or downswing can be attributed to variance, ... the best way to find out what's happening

is to post hands and get feedback, from the descriptions in your post my first questions would be are you

only raising QQ and up?, what are you doing on a missed flop?, ....also with freerolls where no money

is invested the play is just going to be very different than a regular game😎👍

 

[maronza1]

The variance is very high, it can take a lot of hands to get a premium hand while some of the villains will be getting strong hands regularly and build their stack to 3x your stack, and once you get a hand, its either the pot doesnt get big or a cooler comes.

I just play for fun, and if I win im happy about it, if I lose I take it as a usual outcome

 

[dreamer13]

For many poker newbies, this may seem abstract or inaccessible, but it is actually a concept that has a lot to do with the consistency and fluctuations of your earnings over a playing session or even over a period of time.Variance is a measure of how widely results vary around an average. In poker, this means that wins and losses can fluctuate significantly between sessions. Some players may experience long periods of bad luck during which they lose significant amounts, while at other times they may experience periods of good luck where their winnings exceed expectations.

 

[pentazepam]

several minutes or hours waiting for equity hands like AKs, AQs, AJs or pairs AA, KK, QQ, top of the range, but this takes a long time

That's no way to live.

 

[amonlima]

When you know that your plays are profitable, you don't care about variance, because it is part of the process, poker is a mathematical game, when your statistics show that your plays are profitable in the long run, profitability will come.

 

[Margo17]

When you are better at the field you play in, variance will be just a detail.

 

[odonob]

Variance is a sneaky word for luck. And yes I seem to be the victim of shocking variance online. Reduces the game to pot luck basically. Another reason why trying to learn the game as such is basically a fallacy, no amount of skill can match the chance luckmof the random cards that come up.

 

[TeUnit]

I dont really worry about variance, if you are properly rolled it shouldnt impact you.

When things are not going as well as I like, I try to study more and play less. You want to make sure you are still playing your "A" game.

Another fun thing you can do is analyze the best player at the format and see how their stats differ from yours. You can also figure out exploitive plays to counter their tendencies.

 

[oriole]

Variance is a b****—sometimes you run like god, sometimes you can’t win a flip for weeks. Track your hands, keep 20+ buyins for cash, and don’t tilt. If you’re a winner, the math evens out... eventually. GL grinding.

 

[Toruk Makto]

Too inhumane 😂😂😂 way out of the curve

 

[fundiver199]

My current experience, I mean, based on the accounts I have on the platforms, the game usually behaves like this: several minutes or hours waiting for equity hands like AKs, AQs, AJs or pairs AA, KK, QQ, top of the range

Then you are playing to tight and blinding out especially in games with antes, like most tournaments have today. There are many free charts online for preflop play, so find some of them and spend some time to study them and get it just somewhat right. You dont need to know, if the bottom of your opening range is supposed to be JTs or T9s, since the marginal hands are always - well marginal. But if you only open AJs+, and you are supposed to open all the way down to 65s, thats a problem, and you are never going to be a long term winner playing such a nitty style.

but this takes a long time, so when these hands appear, I enter with a raise as per the rule, and these hands when they are not pairs like AKs, AQs do not connect on the flop, or when they are AA, the villains at the entire table fold, even if they limp to trap, it is the same, what I mean is that the variance is huge

Variance is a mathematical term for the spread in outcomes. What you describe here is not variance but a period of bad luck. Say you roll a coin 10 times. Then there is a mathematical formula, which will tell, just how often you will hit 5 tails and 5 heads, 4 tails and 6 heads, 7 tails and 3 heads etc. What you are talking about is hitting 10 tails and 0 heads, which mean, you are at the extreme end of the curve, but that in itself is not variance.

today my vision is just to play for fun, because the huge variance in the game is enough for few to think about really becoming professionals with it.

Professional players understand, what variance actually is, and they have learned to cope with it. I consider myself semi-professional, because I mainly play for profit, and I still have a regular day job. My way of coping is, that if I get annoyed due to losing several games in a row, then I end my session and take a break. Thats pretty much it. Then I am usually ready to play again the next day or even later in the same day.

 

[Fabio Marcos Ro]

It may seem “absurd”, but there is also luck! Kk

 

[ankurdholakiya]

Variance can be brutal, especially when you wait forever for good hands, but they just don't connect or get folded. It’s part of the game, though. As long as you play with proper bankroll management and stick to solid strategy, things should balance out in the long run.

When I hit a downswing, I step back, review my play, and take breaks to stay sharp. Poker’s a marathon, not a sprint. Keep playing for fun, but also keep learning, and the results will come.

 

[dorsk]

With your current experience in online poker, how do you evaluate the influence of variance on your results and success in the game?

Do you suffer from this?

My current experience, I mean, based on the accounts I have on the platforms, the game usually behaves like this: several minutes or hours waiting for equity hands like AKs, AQs, AJs or pairs AA, KK, QQ, top of the range, but this takes a long time, so when these hands appear, I enter with a raise as per the rule, and these hands when they are not pairs like AKs, AQs do not connect on the flop, or when they are AA, the villains at the entire table fold, even if they limp to trap, it is the same, what I mean is that the variance is huge, today my vision is just to play for fun, because the huge variance in the game is enough for few to think about really becoming professionals with it.

And how do you see the variance in poker, is it high or do you go through the same situation?

I hope for you that you don’t play cash games. Here, we don’t have the luxury of waiting for equity hands. Play your position, show agression and play your range which won’t be as conservative as you promote. Sheerly focusing on premium hands is a guarantee for fiasco.

 

[Poker Orifice]

With your current experience in online poker, how do you evaluate the influence of variance on your results and success in the game?

Do you suffer from this?


And how do you see the variance in poker, is it high or do you go through the same situation?

How do I eveluate the influence of variance on my results? Do you mean like "How unlucky have I been?"
Honestly, why would I waste any time on this? If in fact I discover I'm running well below ev on a particular day, all this will accomplish is to potentially piss me off.

"How do I see the variance in poker?"
I see it as >>> if it didn't exist the game would be extremely boring and it'd be much less likely to see as many donkeys/fish still playing the game.
If donks don't get lucky, they're not going to win. If they don't win, they won't play (well.... they might but perhaps not as often or for as long of a period of time)

 

[ZenonBR]

Interesting, I liked all the answers, they were fair and honest answers, without accusations and irony, that's what we expect to discuss this in a natural way, I didn't even remember this topic, it's usually interpreted as a complaint, where we miss the opportunity to talk about it in a nice way, as it was done, that's what we expect from a poker community, unity, discussion of hands and plays, asking questions about the game, never militancy about it, it's a community where everyone has to embrace each other, embrace each other's doubts, seek to help that's always been the vision and what I expected from a community, look at this @Tammy I managed to have a topic where people really sought to help me, and not come with irony, objective accomplished here.

 

[BetterThanAvgButNotByMuch]

the only thing i can add is this site has a equity calculator where you can plug in hands and you might be surprised that certain hands are actually underdogs or coin tosses.

I see a lot of people going all in behind and thinking its variance when theyre actually putting chips in bad and its clear if they put it in a free tool and see their equity.

then they dont understand that almost any 2 cards are going to lose a Big part of the time and thats what makes nlh exciting. And even as a 80/20 fav you can still lose that hand10 times in a row or worse as someone in the thread pointed out.

the math folks say "its suppose" to work out to whatever the percentage is but most folks go broke before playing enogh hands or they play the following streets poorly thinking theyre ahead on that street while ignoring the outs someone mivht have picked up and the heavy fav on previous streets might be a coin toss or behind.

just keep playing and enjoying the game while trying to learn something here and there.

gl

 

[rufininha14]

There is good and bad variation, something normal that will always happen in the game

 

[dianasamu355]

With your current experience in online poker, how do you evaluate the influence of variance on your results and success in the game?

Do you suffer from this?

My current experience, I mean, based on the accounts I have on the platforms, the game usually behaves like this: several minutes or hours waiting for equity hands like AKs, AQs, AJs or pairs AA, KK, QQ, top of the range, but this takes a long time, so when these hands appear, I enter with a raise as per the rule, and these hands when they are not pairs like AKs, AQs do not connect on the flop, or when they are AA, the villains at the entire table fold, even if they limp to trap, it is the same, what I mean is that the variance is huge, today my vision is just to play for fun, because the huge variance in the game is enough for few to think about really becoming professionals with it.

And how do you see the variance in poker, is it high or do you go through the same situation?

Not only good playing skills are needed in poker, but also the right cards at the right time.
This means that we always have to fight on two fronts to achieve results and have a good poker day.

 

[romerim]

It’s important to understand that variance is a normal part of the game, so maintaining solid bankroll management and a consistent strategy will help you better deal with these ups and downs. This way, you can play with more calm and focus, even when luck isn’t on your side for a while.

 

[monkeytilter]

What you are describing is just poker:
We all run card dead sometimes;
We all miss the flop sometimes (OK a lot of the times);
We all have it fold round to us when we have AA (villains are less likely to have their beloved Ace-rag hands as we've got two of the Aces).

The point is we all get dealt the same cards and see the same flops, so variance affects us all, you just have to ride with it as part of the game, there will be times when you run better than your opponents - just don't be afraid to get chips in the pot when you do!

 

[Wega85]

Evaluating variance in online poker is crucial for understanding whether your results are within the realm of expected statistical fluctuations ("luck") or if they indicate a problem with your strategy or game selection.