Reply to thread by Casino.us

Message: [QUOTE="aliengenius, post: 607049, member: 11924"] Um, the odds of hitting your flush on the turn are NOT (9 x 4) = 36%. "36%" is ONLY if you get to see BOTH cards. If a blank comes on the turn your odds of hitting on the river actual INCREASE (9/46 vs 9/47) from the odds you had on the flop (!); this is a CLASSIC misunderstanding of outs... Anyway, let's break down "odds" into a simpler example: you want to compare the odds of the event occurring with the ratio of money risked to money possibly won. Say we are flipping a coin: it's 1:1 on the outcome. But if I offer you 2:1 on your money (every time it comes up heads, you pay me $1, every time it comes up tails, I pay you $2), then that's a good bet for you. Same thing in poker: if you are a 3:1 dog (approx.) to hit your flush and you are only getting 2:1 on your money, that's a bad bet for you. Specific example: you have a flush draw, there is $100 in the pot, opponent bets $100; you have to call $100 to win $200. You are getting 2:1 on your money, but you will only hit one in four times (approx.), or 3:1; therefore, bad bet. [B]BUT: [/B]if you can EXPECT to win more money IF you hit your draw, then you might be justified in calling due to IMPLIED ODDS. In other words, if you think your opponent will pay you off, you can "add" that money to the pot. So, in our example, instead of thinking of the pot as having $200 dollars in it (where you have to call $100 more), you can "add" the amount you think your opponent will also be willing to commit with an inferior hand. This is, of course, a tricky part of NL poker-- if you are not going to get a cent more then you are not justified in calling. You have to know your opponent. The classic example of implied odds in NL is "set mining": calling with a small pair, even though you are a 7.5:1 dog to hit your set (again note that the percentages of 80% vs 20% for pair over pair are ONLY if you see ALL five card, such as in the case of all-ins), you can expect to make more than 7.5:1 on your money from an over-pair that is unwilling to fold. [/QUOTE]

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