Poker Bubble Strategy – How to Play for the Win, Not Just the Min-Cash

[CRStals]

We’ve all been there—right at the money bubble in a poker tournament, unsure whether to push, fold, or hold on for dear life. It's one of the most tense and complex stages of tournament poker.

This guide will help you develop a sharper edge at the bubble by understanding ICM pressure, bubble factors, and stack-based strategy. Let’s turn the bubble into your launchpad for a final table run.

💡 Missed an earlier part? Catch up here:

• Blind vs Blind Poker Strategy: Mastering the Most Awkward Spot at the Table
• Big Blind Strategy in Poker: How to Defend Smarter and Lose Less
• How and Why to Widen Your Poker Ranges in Late Position: Strategy, Risks, and Adjustments
• Part 4: Out of Position Post-Flop Poker Strategy: How to Win Without Position

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🔍 What You’ll Learn:​

• What is ICM and how does it affect bubble play?
• Why you should play to win, not just cash
• When to widen or tighten your range
• How to read stacks across tables—not just your own

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💥 ICM at the Bubble: Why It Matters​

ICM (Independent Chip Model) isn't just a concept—it's the currency of tournament equity.
At the bubble:

• Losing all your chips = $0 equity
• Winning an all-in = a smaller-than-you-think boost in $EV

Enter the Bubble Factor (From Kill Everyone, 2009):

Bubble Factor = $EV lost if you bust / $EV gained if you win
The higher it is, the more risk-averse you should be.

Bubble Factor Depends On:​

• Payout Structure
  • Winner-take-all: Bubble Factor = 1
  • Satellites: May fold AA preflop! Why --> Make the money, win the tournament
  • PKOs: Lower bubble factors thanks to bounties
• Tournament Stage
  • Bubble & Final Table = Highest ICM pressure
• Stack Size
  • Big Stacks: Low risk = wide range
  • Short Stacks: Also low risk = shove or fold
  • Medium Stacks: Highest risk = be cautious

🧠 Tip: Medium stacks must avoid busting before shorter stacks. Be extra careful here.

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💥 Playing for the Win (Not the Min-Cash)​

Think of your table like a battlefield with roles:

• Big Stacks:
  They bully. They play wide. But they also don’t want to lose their power.
  Your move? Attack with strong hands—they’ll often fold rather than risk their position.
• Medium Stacks:
  The most ICM-sensitive. If they’re entering a hand, they're strong.
  Your move? Fold more often against them—they’re not messing around.
• Short Stacks:
  Desperate to double up. Will shove with weak aces, low pairs.
  Your move? Use hands that crush their range (think suited connectors or broadway cards).

🧠 Reminder: Stack size isn’t just at your table, it’s tournament-wide. The biggest stack at your table may only be average overall.

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💥 Adjusting Your Ranges at the Bubble​

If you’re a:

• Big Stack: Open wider, isolate short stacks, apply pressure
• Medium Stack: Tighten up—one wrong move and you’re out before the money
• Short Stack: Shove wider against medium stacks, but beware of loose-calling big stacks

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💥 Watching Other Tables: Bubble Info is Power​

ICM is a tournament-wide concept—not just a local one. Here's how to use it:

✅ Track short stacks elsewhere
Are 2–3 players about to bust? Great time to steal from survival-mode players.
✅ Notice table dynamics
Big stack raising often? Maybe their range is too wide—use that info.
✅ Know your position:

• Are you the shortest stack in the room?
• Do you have fold equity?
• Who can bust before you?

🧠 Example: If you’re sitting with 10BBs but there are 3 players with 4–6BB elsewhere, you can wait it out. If not—you may need to gamble.

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🎯 Summary: Mastering the Bubble​

✅ Play with purpose – for the win, not just the payout
✅ Use stack-aware strategy
✅ Exploit medium stacks, avoid the big and small ones
✅ Track the tournament, not just your table
✅ Understand when to go for it – and when to let others bust first

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💬 What About You?​

How do you approach the money bubble in poker tournaments?
Share your tips, close calls, or biggest bubble wins. What works for you?

👇 Drop your thoughts below—we’re all here to learn and level up together!

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[Nemamiah]

Excellent content! It came at a great time for me because I have had some difficulty with the final part of the tournaments. I will try to apply for tomorrow's All VIP and return to share my experience.
I currently thought that the Big Stacks should play passively while the Short Stacks dried up (due to the ante and the progression of the blinds), but I realized that it is precisely in this position that pressure should be applied! Great.

 

[SpanRmonka]

Hey, nice content, but I kind of feel some is potentially slightly confusing.

In the summery it says exploit big stacks and avoid medium stacks. This surely depends on your stack, which isn't clear here.

If you're the big stack you should be exploiting the medium stacks and the larger short stacks who are trying to survive!

If you're the medium stack you don't want to try and exploit the big stacks as they can bust you? Same with a small stack, if you are one of the small stacks, you don't really want to be playing against the big stack having no fold equity, but if you do have some fold equity, then yeah, they may well be playing too wide and fold. You do say a lot of this is the main body of the article, but I just found the summary confusing. not a critisicism, just a thought based on how I read the summary.

One interesting point I remember from Dara O Kearneys endgame stratedgy, which blew my mind, is the idea that as the big stack you DON'T want to bust the small stack/s on the bubble, so you can almost give them a free ride, and focus on expoiting the medium stacks who are trying to limp into the money. I had just never thought if it like that. The longer the bubble goes on, the more you can exploit, so its at your advantage to keep the bubble going.

 

[CRStals]

Hey, nice content, but I kind of feel some is potentially slightly confusing.

In the summery it says exploit big stacks and avoid medium stacks. This surely depends on your stack, which isn't clear here.

If you're the big stack you should be exploiting the medium stacks and the larger short stacks who are trying to survive!

If you're the medium stack you don't want to try and exploit the big stacks as they can bust you? Same with a small stack, if you are one of the small stacks, you don't really want to be playing against the big stack having no fold equity, but if you do have some fold equity, then yeah, they may well be playing too wide and fold. You do say a lot of this is the main body of the article, but I just found the summary confusing. not a critisicism, just a thought based on how I read the summary.

One interesting point I remember from Dara O Kearneys endgame stratedgy, which blew my mind, is the idea that as the big stack you DON'T want to bust the small stack/s on the bubble, so you can almost give them a free ride, and focus on expoiting the medium stacks who are trying to limp into the money. I had just never thought if it like that. The longer the bubble goes on, the more you can exploit, so its at your advantage to keep the bubble going.

Great catch - that line was backwards - it was supposed to be exploiting the medium stacks, and avoiding the big and small ones. Thanks for catching that & I've edited the post to reflect.

It seems to go against common thinking but the rationale makes sense - the longer the bubble goes, the more you can exploit the medium stacks and wittle them down because they will not want to bust before the short ones do. Small stacks are going to want to double up and will apply pressure to do so, so going after the stacks safely in the money and not wanting to get into a pot makes sense. Blind stealing on the bubble is huge like that!

 

[Nemamiah]

I was the bubble! I managed to survive to eighth position (top 5 ITM), but there wasn't much to do. Anyway, this content helped me survive the top 20 as far as I finished, even though I wasn't on the ITM, I consider it a victory!

 

[dannystanks]

Love all your content! Playing the bubble is a lot of fun! There was a guy on my table last night when we were down to 1 player before the money and so it was hand for hand. Its on him and he delays to the max and finally the floor comes over and gives him 30 seconds to decide. Goes all the way to the 30 seconds and the floor calls his hand dead. Then the floor warns him if he does it again he will be penalized lol. Meanwhile another player goes all in and gets called and gets busted out. So the delay worked! So delay if you must, it made him twice his buy in even though the floor did t like it. I thought it was a good move lol

 

[Vallet]

Tracking the tournament position at other tables is very important. Some players may fall asleep and sit out when the tournament is long. They will get into the prize zone, but you will not, if you often take risks in the case of approximately the same stack sizes.