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Message: [QUOTE="SHERMSTICK, post: 458932, member: 7702"] The Right Time To Chase A Straight ------------------------------------------------------------ Dear Poker Player, Chasing straights and flush draws will BURN you... there's no doubt about it. The term "chasing" means you stay in the hand... hoping to catch a certain card (or cards) that will complete your straight. The problem with chasing is that the ODDS ARE AGAINST YOU. And as you know, successful Texas Holdem poker is all about keeping the odds in your favor. But sometimes chasing a straight IS the right thing to do. SOMETIMES. Let me explain... First off, let's look at the two different types of straight draws: 1. GUTSHOT - This is when you're trying to make an INSIDE straight... like if you have 4-5-6-8 and you need the 7. 2. OPEN-ENDED - This is when TWO cards can "make" your straight... like if you have 4-5-6-7 and need EITHER the 3 or the 8. There's also what's called a "double belly buster", which is actually like two gutshots at once. We'll talk about this a little later. OK, so how should you play a gutshot straight draw? Let's look at the odds... if you FLOP an inside (gutshot) straight draw, the odds of making your straight are 16.47%. If you have an inside straight draw after the TURN... with just the river card to go... your odds are 8.70%. So the odds aren't good. 16.47% might SOUND like it's worth it... but you've got to ANTICIPATE the bet after the turn card. For instance, let's say you flop an inside straight draw and someone makes a big bet. If you call and then miss your straight on the turn, what then? Your opponent makes ANOTHER big bet... do you call to see the river card? You feel pot committed, but you know the odds are against you... This is how you get into trouble with gutshot straight draws. You become pot committed and you chase a hand that's not worth chasing. As a general principle, you should NOT chase gutshot straight draws... especially on the river. When I flop a gutshot, I might call a small bet but that's it. And that's only when the odds are worth it. As we'll discuss in a moment, you must also factor in the IMPLIED ODDS... but first, let's look at how to play open-ended straight draws. For an open-ended straight draw, your odds of making your straight are MUCH better. If you flop an open-ender your odds of hitting are 31.45%. If you have an open-ender with just the river card to go, your odds are 17.39%. Notice that you have BETTER chances of completing an open-ended straight draw just on the RIVER than completing a gutshot straight draw on both the turn AND the river. Interesting, huh? OK, so what's the right way to play an open-ender? Many players will just CHECK with an open-ended straight draw... and then CALL any bets. This is REACTIVE card playing... and it's the WRONG thing to do. You need to be PROACTIVE... and here's why: Let's say you've got 6-7 of diamonds and the flop hits: 4-5-K You've got the top half of an open-ended straight draw... either an 8 or a 3 will give you the nut straight. The NATURAL TENDENCY here is to check. You don't have ANYTHING yet... no pairs, no high cards, nothing. So obviously you'd LOVE to wait to see if you make your straight before you risk any chips, right? Wrong. If you just check, you're making three dangerous mistakes: Mistake 1: You're showing weakness. Mistake 2: You're not increasing the pot size. Mistake 3: You're giving your opponent a read on you. There's a strange analogy I like to use for this. If you're ever in the forest or wilderness and you encounter a mountain lion, bobcat, or other similar PREDATOR, the NATURAL TENDENCY is to get scared. Most people would run away! However... the RIGHT thing to do is to SHOW AGGRESSION and NOT show fear. I'm dead serious here. The right thing to do if you see a bobcat is to make a lot of noise, to raise your hands in the air and possibly hold up a coat or jacket (in order to appear bigger), and to snarl or growl. It's counter-intuitive... but it's what you MUST do if you don't want to get attacked (or eaten). Now... back to Texas Holdem... LOL. Your OPPONENT is your PREDATOR. Show them weakness and they will likely attack you. When you have an open-ended straight draw, you want to see the next two cards... and you don't want to risk a lot of chips to do so. So the RIGHT PLAY is to BET or RAISE the pot. In our example above, you want to throw out a reasonably-sized bet. Your opponents might fold right there. Or you might get one or two callers. NOW, when the TURN card comes, your opponents will probably check to you. So basically you're getting a FREE CARD. You can check and see the river for free. If you HADN'T taken control of the betting, your opponents would have made you PAY A LOT to see the river card. And you might of been forced to FOLD your open-ended straight draw. By taking control of the betting and coming out strong after the flop, you're actually investing LESS money overall to see the next two cards. Now... the other reason taking control is important is because it doesn't give your opponent a read on you. Say your opponent checks the flop and you also check. The turn card comes and it's a 3... giving you the straight. Your opponent checks again and now all of the sudden you come out betting strong. Obviously, your opponent will SEE what's going on here and will have a hunch that you just made your straight... and he'll fold. If you DON'T bet after the 3, the odds of you making any real money off of this hand are slim, and you've let your straight go to waste. So the key is to bet EARLY... that way if you HIT you're golden and you'll get paid. And if you DON'T hit you won't have to invest any more chips. Say you took control of the betting after the flop and your opponent called with A-5. He's probably putting you on the King, but isn't sure... He's got middle pair along with an Ace. The turn card comes and it's a 3, so you bet again. Your opponent calls again. Finally the river hits and it's an Ace, giving your opponent TWO PAIR. By now he's confident that you have the King... and not the straight... since you were betting consistently after the flop. So your opponent puts you ALL-IN with his hand... not knowing that you've got him DOMINATED. You win a big pot, all because you played the open-ender properly. There's also what's called a "double belly buster" straight draw. A regular (single) belly buster is simply an inside straight draw. A DOUBLE means there are TWO different cards to make your straight... but it's not open-ended. For example, if you were holding A-5 and the flop hit 3-4-7 you would have a DOUBLE BELLY BUSTER. Either a 2 or a 6 would give you a straight. Double belly busters are great because your opponents will often never see them coming... and your odds of hitting are the same as an OPEN-ENDED straight draw. When an opponent doesn't put you on a hand, THAT is when you'll be able to win the most chips. This is known as IMPLIED ODDS. Implied odds means that when you make your hand, you're going to get paid a LOT for it. Implied odds is a very important part of making decisions in Texas Holdem... just like regular odds. Except the key distinction is that implied odds doesn't necessarily involve numbers or math percentages. Implied odds is more about getting a SENSE for how big the pot will be if you make your hand. When your implied odds are HIGH, you can often bet more early in order to build the pot size. An example of high implied odds is when there's a straight draw on the board with HIGH CARDS. For instance, let's say you're holding J-10 and the flop comes Q-K-3. You've got an open-ended straight draw... but you might face opponents who have a REALLY GOOD HAND right now... something like A-K, A-Q, or K-Q. An opponent with a big hand is going to be very aggressive with his bets... and if a 9 or an Ace hits, you're going to win a ton of chips. Those are high implied odds. On the other hand, this type of flop is BAD for you because it means you'll probably have to PAY DEARLY to see the turn and river cards. Be careful... don't chase the straight if it's going to break your chip stack. An example of a straight with LOW implied odds would be when it's all low cards on the board. After all, if no one has anything decent, no one is going to give you a lot of action. When you have an open-ended straight draw with low cards and you sense weakness in your opponents, the best move is to act aggressively and take the pot down right there. After all... nearly 70% of the time you are NOT going to hit your straight. So if you can win the pot by betting, do so. If you do get a caller, that's OK too, because you still have a lot of outs and a good chance at busting your opponent (and now the implied odds are higher since he's pot committed and must have a good hand). Another example of low implied odds is when the straight draw on the board is OBVIOUS. This is especially relevant when there's only ONE card needed to make the straight. For instance, let's say you have K-7 and the board reads 3-4-5. And then the turn card comes and it's a 6. Of course, with 3-4-5-6 on the board, your opponents WILL be suspicious that someone has the straight. This type of situation is sometimes good for a check-raise... or a strong bet to make it LOOK like you're buying the pot. (It just depends on your table image.) With straight draws, be extra careful to pay attention to what ELSE is out there on the board. You will often encounter hands that BEAT you and wipe out your entire chip stack. For instance... look for possible FLUSH draws. If your opponent might have made a flush, back off. Muck the hand if you need to and live to see another day. Full houses are dangerous too. If two cards on the board pair up, be careful. And last but not least, always think about what OTHER straights are possible. For instance, if you're holding A-2 and the flop hits 3-4-5, you have the BOTTOM end of the straight. Someone could have 7-6, or maybe 6-2, and would have you beat. It's the same way with our double belly buster example. In that example the flop was 3-4-7 and you had A-5. Let's say a 6 hit the board. Even though you have the straight (3-7), it's NOT the best possible straight. Your opponent could be holding 8-5... which would be the nut straight. It's the same way with FOUR consecutive cards on the board. If the board reads 5-6-7-8 and you've got the 9, that doesn't mean you have the "nuts". The nuts would be 10-9... which would give someone the straight (6-10). The possibilities are ENDLESS... and you'll soon discover that the more you play Texas Holdem the more IMPORTANT every possibility becomes. For the most part, keep in mind that you want to only "chase" a straight when the odds of hitting are most favorable, when the implied odds are good, and when you think you can see a cheap (or free) river card. Knowing how to INCREASE your winnings and DECREASE your losses is the name of the game. Strategies like these will also minimize your risk during each pot... and help you secure a CONSISTENT winning streak. I can show you how to master the game of Texas Holdem and play like a pro... whether you want to want to become a full-time "rounder", win some tournaments, or just knock the socks off your friends. SHERMSTICK:cool: See you there. Your New Friend, Roy Rounder [/QUOTE]

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