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[QUOTE="Pitonealal, post: 7188683, member: 1052667"]
Hey CardChat family! 👋

I’ve been diving deeper into the math side of poker lately, and I came across something that really caught my attention: Bayes’ Theorem. 🤓

For those who haven’t seen it in a while, here’s the formula:

P(A|B) = \frac{P(B|A) \cdot P(A)}{P(B)}

In simple terms, it’s about updating your probability of an event A happening, given that event B has occurred.

Now here’s my question to you all 👉 do you know this theorem, and have you ever tried to apply it in poker?

For example:

Let’s say your opponent 3-bets preflop. You already have an idea of their overall 3-bet frequency (P(A)).

Then the flop comes, and they c-bet. You can update your read based on the probability of them c-betting given their strong range (P(B|A)).

Finally, Bayes’ Theorem helps you adjust your belief about how strong their hand really is (P(A|B)).

It sounds very mathematical, but in reality, it’s just a structured way of doing what many of us already try to do: updating our reads based on new information.

So I’m really curious 🤔:

Have you ever consciously applied Bayes’ Theorem in poker?

If yes, in what spots did you find it most useful? Preflop ranges? Postflop bluffs?

And where do you think it could be applied best — tournaments, cash games, satellites?

I feel like mastering this concept could make decision-making a lot more precise. But maybe some of you already use it without even realizing!

Looking forward to your thoughts, CardChat family! 🃏🔥
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