Winning Percentage in Poker – How Do You See It?

[Pitonealal]

Hey everyone,

I’ve been thinking a lot lately about the idea of “winning percentage” in poker. Some players talk about it like it’s the ultimate number that defines whether you’re good or not. But the more I play and study, the more I realize it’s not that simple. Poker isn’t like chess, where there’s always a clear winner and loser—it’s a game with luck, math, and psychology all mixed together.


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What Does “Winning Percentage” Even Mean? 🤔

When people say “I win 60% of the time” or “I only win 40% of my sessions,” I always wonder—are they talking about individual hands, sessions, or long-term results?

Because if we’re talking about hands, even the best players in the world don’t “win” the majority. You can fold a ton, you can get unlucky, and you can lose most hands but still be profitable in the long run.

If we’re talking about sessions, that’s a bit different. Some players might win 55% of their sessions, others maybe 45%. But even if your win percentage is lower, as long as your average winning session is bigger than your average losing session, you’re still ahead overall. That’s something I didn’t understand when I started.


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The Role of Probability 🎯

Poker is built on probabilities, not guarantees. Every time we make a decision, we’re playing the odds. Sometimes you’ll be an 80% favorite and still lose—because that 20% happens! Other times you’ll get it in bad but hit your miracle card.

That’s why I try not to obsess over “winning percentage.” Instead, I look at whether my decisions are mathematically correct. If I keep putting money in with the best of it, eventually my results even out in my favor.


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My View 🔍

Personally, I’ve stopped worrying about whether I’m winning X% of sessions. What matters more to me is:
👉 Am I studying enough?
👉 Am I avoiding tilt?
👉 Am I making positive EV decisions?

If I do those things, the numbers take care of themselves.

 

[hardongear]

Personally I don't pay much attention to the numbers and %'s now days. I use to way back when I first started playing online 20+ years ago. Somewhere along the line I got a bit smarter and wiser(I think).

For me you pretty much nailed it with your view. If one is studying/do hand reviews enough and the right way, avoiding tilt, managing his bankroll right and making +EV decisions the numbers will take care of them shelves. I think a lot of players who obsesses over numbers tend to do a lot of over thinking.

With that said I do still pay a bit of attention to my ITM% when it comes to MTT's. I do feel it's a rather important number. I don't obsesses over it thou but do check it.

Cheers!!!

 

[Mario7]

For me described "winning percentage" sounds like rather an impression someone tries to describe their wins rather than real results.
Real results should have something in common with money. I can win a session winning $3 and the next day loose one by $300. "Winning precentage" tells nothing in such case.

When you play online cash games, BB/100 can be some indicator, however only for the same blind sizes. When you change the blinds and stacks your BB/100 results are changing - usually dropping down when you increase blinds (since the skill of players increases).

When you play life cash or tournaments (life or online) you can measure it just by earning per hour (like for example you make $10 per hour).

In any case the bigger the sample, the more realistic the results.

IMO some kind of recording and measuring the results is important - it is how we recognise if we improve. Of course, because the variance we need relatively long time perspective to compare the results - months, years...