How do I approach friend who bets big on poker but just isn't that good?

[Damondnotaplaye]

Long story short, my friend quit their job roughly 10 years ago (give or take 1-2 years).
I suggested against it, but my friend was not enjoying work and was confident that they could make poker work.
The plan was to use savings and play low stakes to become good.
He lived with parents (and still do) so not much expenses.

Fast forward, I moved to another town and we sort of lost contact.
Now we are back in contact and I challenged my friend to a few games of poker.
My friend knows all the lingo, he said we are playing headsup, and decided the blinds and everything.
We didn't play for real money, it was just a chance for him to show what he learnt after all these years.

I told him to not go easy on me and to play to win, because I wanted to see what he learnt, he promised to do so.
I won the first headsup, slowly taking his pot away, I noticed that he tended to fold anytime I went all in so I just did that a lot.
He called it luck/varriance and we went again, this time he won, we took a few days break and played a few more headsup days/weeks later (on online site).
Now we are at a total of 6 games and I won 3, this is not to brag, this is worrying, I have no intention to become a poker player and I don't study poker.

I went to visit my friend and asked him to play online like he normally does, he said sure and I watched him play maybe 4-5 hours.
After all this time (grinding mostly 1-2 dollar buyins I think) he's down like 2 dollars.
Not a lot, but at the same time dosn't show he has what it takes to win.
I would say his style is mostly wait for a super strong hand, like AA or possible TT and then he always does the same, bet 3 BB, mostly people then fold and it's onto the next hand.

I think people just notice he plays very tight and when he goes in they just be like "nah next hand..".

He dosn't play many hands and it seems the blinds just eats most of his bankroll.
He seems super afraid at the table as well, he had QQ and got like a third queen, he bet small, and the other player went all in.
I assumed he had the best hand and I told him to call, but he figured the other played could have a straight and folded.
Maybe he was correct, we don't know, but it dosn't seem like he want to take any risk or something.

I asked if he ever plays tables with higher buyins, he said he dipped his feets some at 5 and even 10 dollar buyins but lost because players are so good there.
He is also paying for a new coach now (unsure how many coaches he has had before) and was preparing to takle higher stakes.

My question is basically is there a test or somehow I could figure out if my friend is actually good at poker?
And am I correct in my assumptions that he probably should try something else if he can't make a profit after all these years?
He say it takes lot of time to become good at poker, and I can sort of buy into that, it's a complicated game.
I think maybe it can take a few years, but 10 years?

 

[steve01991]

some people it takes a lifetime! lol

 

[fryderyk]

If he didn't learn to play on his own mistakes and by spending years, and from what you wrote he had a comfortable situation to devote all his time to learning and practicing, then he should have changed his interest a long time ago. Playing freerolls organized by CardsChat I learned a very important thing that even playing freerolls you can come across great players.

 

[Andyreas]

My question is basically is there a test or somehow I could figure out if my friend is actually good at poker?

If he plays for some years already, you can simply use basic math to figure out his results:

Take his buyins and his payouts and put it into relation, which is called return on investment (ROI). It should be positive for winning players and the bigger, the better.

There are dedicated sites like sharkscope.com where you can lookup his usernames and see his results.

 

[Damondnotaplaye]

some people it takes a lifetime! lol

This is what worries me. That he might lack "something" that's needed to make it in poker.

I really wanted him to at least crush me (I would rank me as a very basic opponent). When he failed to do so, I thought maybe I just had a style that's good against him, so I watched him play online but things didn't go well there either.

If he didn't learn to play on his own mistakes and by spending years, and from what you wrote he had a comfortable situation to devote all his time to learning and practicing, then he should have changed his interest a long time ago. Playing freerolls organized by CardsChat I learned a very important thing that even playing freerolls you can come across great players.

This aligns with my thinking as well, maybe he should do something else. But it feels cruel to try and persuade him to give up what I assume is his dream, I think he needs support and I'm unsure how to approach this, it would be so easy to be supportive if he didn't seems to be bad at what he does.

If he plays for some years already, you can simply use basic math to figure out his results:

Take his buyins and his payouts and put it into relation, which is called return on investment (ROI). It should be positive for winning players and the bigger, the better.

There are dedicated sites like sharkscope.com where you can lookup his usernames and see his results.

I don't know all his aliases, he plays multiple sites but I know one, and it say Opt-In under ROI. It say under statistics -> ability 66, is that good?

 

[Andyreas]

I know one, and it say Opt-In under ROI. It say under statistics -> ability 66, is that good?

That's possible. Some sites share fully transparent and others only after you opt-in.

The ability ranges from 0-100, I think. Usually it starts at 50 and then goes up and down depending on your results. 66 isn't top tier but not terrible either.

In general, it's not a huge sample size of one online session and a few heads-up games.

Variance in poker can be huge and a good player can have a downswing over several weeks.

So all in all, while I think your intention might be good, if you are/were good friends before, you should be able to talk to him a bit more open on his results.

Does he have a tracker software which tracks his results?

 

[Damondnotaplaye]

66 isn't top tier but not terrible either.

He could be better than I thought then.

I have tried to ask a few direct questions but he tend to gives answers that dosn't say much, and then I just drop the subject.

Like I asked "how much would you say you win or loose on your typical night?".
And the response is something like "It's very hard to say, everytime is diffrent, depends if you play tournaments or bla bla", and there is no number.

Does he have a tracker software which tracks his results?

He has a tracking software, hud software a software that can calculate how to play from a situation (but he say that software can only be for studying not live). So he probably knows himself how things are going. But I don't know what his tracking software show, he never showed and I didn't ask. But as I understand these software cost money, coaching too and maybe he is better than I think. Maybe I was just lucky when I played him. I think my action will be no action and let him do his thing, hopefully he succeeds and starts winning big.

 

[pavel1111111]

The truth always hurts, but if îs a good friend he will listen to you or at least consider what are you saying to him and he will adjust his game în the fluture 🤙😄

 

[NootNoot]

It's the 10 years thing that is most concerning to me. If he's not making consistent money by then he's never going to, ar at least highly unlikely to.

It's actually good to hear he's getting a coach (or another one, lol). A big flaw can be people gaining a certain level of knowledge and thinking they know what they're doing when really they're not at a very advanced level at all. New concepts they've never heard of let alone mastered. Not knowing what you don't know can be dangerous.

Some will study a few starting hand charts, get a basic grasp of them and positon, learn a little about rasing and 3 betting and go no further, thinking they've put in a lot of study for example.

I'm not very good by the way, not trying to speak from the point of view as a great player but at least I know my level. Your friend could be a victim of that, hard to say.

It can be difficult to put into practice what we've learned as our brains can do funny things to us at times and we end up resetting to play within our comfort zone or how we'd play instictively. That could be happening too.

Then there's always the chance someone can misunderstand concepts, or have everything jumbled up. Poker is so complex! New approaches to learning can help, but the reality is that some people will never comprehend certain things or else being an astro-physics professor would be something we could all do.

How much do you like poker? If you're into it a lot maybe study together? Whether that's an option or not he needs to be getting a job otherwise his life is going to pass him by. It's nice that you're looking out for him like this, you sound like a good friend.

On it's own the results of watching him play for a while don't really mean too much. There are pros who do bankroll challenges for fun on Youtube that struggle over a few sessions here and there even when they drop down to low level games at the start of the challenge. It's how he's playing thatwould be the most important thing to look at. You said his game didn't sound too great, and that's the worry assuming you're good enough yourself to be able to judge it.

 

[I Live Poker]

Long story short, my friend quit their job roughly 10 years ago (give or take 1-2 years).
I suggested against it, but my friend was not enjoying work and was confident that they could make poker work.
The plan was to use savings and play low stakes to become good.
He lived with parents (and still do) so not much expenses.

Fast forward, I moved to another town and we sort of lost contact.
Now we are back in contact and I challenged my friend to a few games of poker.
My friend knows all the lingo, he said we are playing headsup, and decided the blinds and everything.
We didn't play for real money, it was just a chance for him to show what he learnt after all these years.

I told him to not go easy on me and to play to win, because I wanted to see what he learnt, he promised to do so.
I won the first headsup, slowly taking his pot away, I noticed that he tended to fold anytime I went all in so I just did that a lot.
He called it luck/varriance and we went again, this time he won, we took a few days break and played a few more headsup days/weeks later (on online site).
Now we are at a total of 6 games and I won 3, this is not to brag, this is worrying, I have no intention to become a poker player and I don't study poker.

I went to visit my friend and asked him to play online like he normally does, he said sure and I watched him play maybe 4-5 hours.
After all this time (grinding mostly 1-2 dollar buyins I think) he's down like 2 dollars.
Not a lot, but at the same time dosn't show he has what it takes to win.
I would say his style is mostly wait for a super strong hand, like AA or possible TT and then he always does the same, bet 3 BB, mostly people then fold and it's onto the next hand.

I think people just notice he plays very tight and when he goes in they just be like "nah next hand..".

He dosn't play many hands and it seems the blinds just eats most of his bankroll.
He seems super afraid at the table as well, he had QQ and got like a third queen, he bet small, and the other player went all in.
I assumed he had the best hand and I told him to call, but he figured the other played could have a straight and folded.
Maybe he was correct, we don't know, but it dosn't seem like he want to take any risk or something.

I asked if he ever plays tables with higher buyins, he said he dipped his feets some at 5 and even 10 dollar buyins but lost because players are so good there.
He is also paying for a new coach now (unsure how many coaches he has had before) and was preparing to takle higher stakes.

My question is basically is there a test or somehow I could figure out if my friend is actually good at poker?
And am I correct in my assumptions that he probably should try something else if he can't make a profit after all these years?
He say it takes lot of time to become good at poker, and I can sort of buy into that, it's a complicated game.
I think maybe it can take a few years, but 10 years?

If he is very dedicated, it will take 5 years to understand what his best is, what style of play fits him best. I always say that the balance of range and bet size is one of the most important things to be competitive and have fun. Heads up is a completely different game... From what I've noticed, he is unbalanced in his value and bluff range, so he becomes very predictable. He needs self-knowledge and understanding of what is necessary to balance his range and bet size to become a little less predictable. Each type of style has a different way to balance this. Poker is a game of many details and incomplete information, so nothing is a rule, situations have many nuances, and this is the biggest difficulty. However, repetition and execution, perception and adaptation are essential.

 

[Flyer35]

If he's making no real headway for 10 years at 1-2 dollar buyins and feels that 5-10 dollar buyins are a huge challenge, then he's not in the right career field.

Hobby? Yes, sure.
Career? Definitely not.

 

[infonazar]

Long story short, my friend quit their job roughly 10 years ago (give or take 1-2 years).
I suggested against it, but my friend was not enjoying work and was confident that they could make poker work.
The plan was to use savings and play low stakes to become good.
He lived with parents (and still do) so not much expenses.

Fast forward, I moved to another town and we sort of lost contact.
Now we are back in contact and I challenged my friend to a few games of poker.
My friend knows all the lingo, he said we are playing headsup, and decided the blinds and everything.
We didn't play for real money, it was just a chance for him to show what he learnt after all these years.

I told him to not go easy on me and to play to win, because I wanted to see what he learnt, he promised to do so.
I won the first headsup, slowly taking his pot away, I noticed that he tended to fold anytime I went all in so I just did that a lot.
He called it luck/varriance and we went again, this time he won, we took a few days break and played a few more headsup days/weeks later (on online site).
Now we are at a total of 6 games and I won 3, this is not to brag, this is worrying, I have no intention to become a poker player and I don't study poker.

I went to visit my friend and asked him to play online like he normally does, he said sure and I watched him play maybe 4-5 hours.
After all this time (grinding mostly 1-2 dollar buyins I think) he's down like 2 dollars.
Not a lot, but at the same time dosn't show he has what it takes to win.
I would say his style is mostly wait for a super strong hand, like AA or possible TT and then he always does the same, bet 3 BB, mostly people then fold and it's onto the next hand.

I think people just notice he plays very tight and when he goes in they just be like "nah next hand..".

He dosn't play many hands and it seems the blinds just eats most of his bankroll.
He seems super afraid at the table as well, he had QQ and got like a third queen, he bet small, and the other player went all in.
I assumed he had the best hand and I told him to call, but he figured the other played could have a straight and folded.
Maybe he was correct, we don't know, but it dosn't seem like he want to take any risk or something.

I asked if he ever plays tables with higher buyins, he said he dipped his feets some at 5 and even 10 dollar buyins but lost because players are so good there.
He is also paying for a new coach now (unsure how many coaches he has had before) and was preparing to takle higher stakes.

My question is basically is there a test or somehow I could figure out if my friend is actually good at poker?
And am I correct in my assumptions that he probably should try something else if he can't make a profit after all these years?
He say it takes lot of time to become good at poker, and I can sort of buy into that, it's a complicated game.
I think maybe it can take a few years, but 10 years?

Not everyone can become a good gambler. There are people who just may not have that inclination. I think no more than 10% of the 100% have a chance of becoming professional players. But the thing is that these 10% will be the people who never give up. Maybe your friend is one of them?
As for the tests, they don't exist. In my opinion, the best indicator of a player's progress and prospects is the dynamics of their bankroll growth.

 

[MK_]

I tend to prefer honesty in general... however there are certain times where I tend to think it's best to stay in my lane,
.... giving a friend I haven't seen in ten years unsolicited advice would probably be one of those times😎👍

 

[benitwapasu]

I know I have always had enough things to think about and worry about in my own life without worrying about what is going on in someone else's life

 

[john_entony]

I have a friend who really liked to play cash games at high limits (0.50$ - 1$ blind level), but was very bad at poker. More precisely he knows the rules, but he calls almost all raises on pre-flop and board with a weak hand. He lost a lot of money and wanted to win it back. I consider such people to be gambling addicts. It took me a long time to convince him not to play poker. Fortunately, I succeeded! And my friend doesn't play poker anymore (at least that's what he tells me).

 

[TeUnit]

A lot of people of have really selective memories, just show him his sharkscope.

 

[TulasMoreno]

You have to pursue him till he study the game and improve it before its later!

 

[jaymfc]

Long story short, my friend quit their job roughly 10 years ago (give or take 1-2 years).
I suggested against it, but my friend was not enjoying work and was confident that they could make poker work.
The plan was to use savings and play low stakes to become good.
He lived with parents (and still do) so not much expenses.

Fast forward, I moved to another town and we sort of lost contact.
Now we are back in contact and I challenged my friend to a few games of poker.
My friend knows all the lingo, he said we are playing headsup, and decided the blinds and everything.
We didn't play for real money, it was just a chance for him to show what he learnt after all these years.

I told him to not go easy on me and to play to win, because I wanted to see what he learnt, he promised to do so.
I won the first headsup, slowly taking his pot away, I noticed that he tended to fold anytime I went all in so I just did that a lot.
He called it luck/varriance and we went again, this time he won, we took a few days break and played a few more headsup days/weeks later (on online site).
Now we are at a total of 6 games and I won 3, this is not to brag, this is worrying, I have no intention to become a poker player and I don't study poker.

I went to visit my friend and asked him to play online like he normally does, he said sure and I watched him play maybe 4-5 hours.
After all this time (grinding mostly 1-2 dollar buyins I think) he's down like 2 dollars.
Not a lot, but at the same time dosn't show he has what it takes to win.
I would say his style is mostly wait for a super strong hand, like AA or possible TT and then he always does the same, bet 3 BB, mostly people then fold and it's onto the next hand.

I think people just notice he plays very tight and when he goes in they just be like "nah next hand..".

He dosn't play many hands and it seems the blinds just eats most of his bankroll.
He seems super afraid at the table as well, he had QQ and got like a third queen, he bet small, and the other player went all in.
I assumed he had the best hand and I told him to call, but he figured the other played could have a straight and folded.
Maybe he was correct, we don't know, but it dosn't seem like he want to take any risk or something.

I asked if he ever plays tables with higher buyins, he said he dipped his feets some at 5 and even 10 dollar buyins but lost because players are so good there.
He is also paying for a new coach now (unsure how many coaches he has had before) and was preparing to takle higher stakes.

My question is basically is there a test or somehow I could figure out if my friend is actually good at poker?
And am I correct in my assumptions that he probably should try something else if he can't make a profit after all these years?
He say it takes lot of time to become good at poker, and I can sort of buy into that, it's a complicated game.
I think maybe it can take a few years, but 10 years?

if he has survived 10 years without you then it is best to leave it alone. the truth does hurt and so does a negative opinion of a good friend.
he's getting a coach so maybe things will change. don't ruin a friendship trying to help.

The truth always hurts, but if îs a good friend he will listen to you or at least consider what are you saying to him and he will adjust his game în the fluture 🤙😄

we need to talk

 

[Station_Master]

Has your friend really.been pro 10 years and still be bad? Maybe he has a job but he wants to keep the illusion he is a poker pro

 

[Haawglivin]

I would offer them a book or two on poker or do something like go over hands together or get some training App that will improve their game without criticizing them

 

[stank12345]

unless they have a serious gambling problem and need help I would just let him play and enjoy himself it is very to influence people in any way

 

[Damondnotaplaye]

I'm just gonna let him do his thing and just drop this, probably not gonna talk poker at all unless he brings it up. Not too sold on his abilities from the things I've seen, but I can be wrong and time will tell I guess.

I have asked him something in the style of (not verbatim): "With all this experience and studying do you notice like an upward trend where maybe you used to win say one dollar an hour when starting out and now you win 2-3 dollars instead?"

And the answer is like: "No, but it's too early to tell, you have so much varriance in poker and you need at least a few hundred thousand hands to see such trends".

Varriance has become like a simple explanation to many things. He plays another game also (no money involved) and has a low rank there. He say things like "many would belive they are bad if they are not climbing after a few thousand games, but thousands of games is nothing, if they knew about varriance like I do they would realise that this can happen even if you are very good". My thinking is it could be varriance, but other explanations looks plausible as well, idk.

I'm just gonna be hands off on this and hope he proves every doubter wrong (including me). It's possible he is very close to some sort of break through and will reach the next level some time soon!

 

[istbno]

Approaching a friend who bets big on poker but isn't skilled requires sensitivity. Start by expressing genuine concern for their well-being, emphasizing your support. Frame the conversation around your worry about the financial risks they're taking, rather than criticizing their skills. Suggest learning resources or offer to study and improve together, making it a joint effort. Highlight the importance of responsible gambling and suggest setting limits or a budget for poker. Encourage them to view the game as a skill to be developed over time, rather than relying solely on big bets.

 

[GarotoMaroto]

If he loses a lot,he will probably stop by himself,tell him to do the math on this XD
If he still betting big he maybe making millions without telling anyone(who knows?!)
You are a good friend for been worried,just express your councerns
God bless

 

[jaymfc]

every place is different but in the United States we have a motto,
you run your life and I will run mine