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Message: [QUOTE="titans4ever, post: 354474, member: 2843"] Sorry, I screwed up on the previous post, you should get $100 for splitting third. Here is the real answer assuming you are all equally good poker players. You need to do some serious math to see what is better long run for tournament poker since there is more money for finishing first than second or third. Base this situation on 40 tournaments (makes the math easier). [b]Fold[/b] You will finish in the money 40 times. You will have 5k of about 45k in chips. Stalansky says you will win a percentage of the time relative to your stack size (here it is 1:9 of total chips). Out of 10 tournament you will win 1, and I will assume 2nd once. Prize money for all 40 tournaments is 4 first + 4 second + 32 thirds = 1000(4) + 700(4) + 300(32) = 4000+2800+9600= [b]$16,400[/b] [b]Call and you are all in.[/b] You will still finish in the money 40 times. With the 4 players all in lets just assume you have a even 25% to win this hand. You will win this hand 10 out of the 40 times you play it. You will split 3rd 3 ways 30 times. The ten times you win you have a slight chip advantage over the other player (about 6:4 of total chips). So in the 10 times you win you will take first 6 times and 2nd 4 times. Prize money for all 40 tournamens is 6 first + 4 second + 30 third (split 3 ways) = 1000(6) + 700(4) + 100(30) = 6000+2800+3000= [b]$11,800[/b] [b]Call and you still have 2k in chips.[/b] You will still finish in the money 40 times. With the 4 players all in lets just assume you have a even 25% to win this hand. You will win this hand 10 out of the 40 times you play it. The ten times you win you have a slight chip advantage over the other player (about 6:4 of total chips). So in the 10 times you win you will take first 6 times and 2nd 4 times same as before. The 30 times you lose you have 2k left (1:22 of total chips) which would get you first once, second once and 3rd 28 times approximately. Prize money for all 40 tournamens is 7 first + 5 second + 28 third = 1000(7) + 700(5) + 300(28) = 7000+3500+8400= [b]$18,900[/b] Those are the long run percentages for the three ways it could be played out. I said if I had 2k left according to the original post, I was right in making the call in the long run. If put all in preflop, you are better off folding and playing short stacked. Love this thread. I am very analytical. I love to do the math afterward to see if plays like this are correct or not. I had a situation like this last week in a live game and I thought it was a close call to do it, when I got done I was shocked at what a mistake it would have been not to call in a simular situation. You may only have a slight chance at winning the hand but you have to look at tournament outcomes since there is such a big difference in money based on how you finish, 1st, 2nd, 3rd etc. Did the first post at work, and did the math when I got home and had alittle bit of time. [/QUOTE]

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