Not sure if this variance, bad luck or sucking? Too much information from hud? 7max Micro

[chump39]

I moved from ignition where I was a light winning player to Coinpoker. I now have information (via Drivehud) on my opponents, but I'm having a bad time.
Is there anything in my stats that stands out, apart from a very crappy time with AK? Maybe cbet%? W$SD?
Any help is appreciated!

 

[fundiver199]

You are down around 11 BIs over a small sample of 7.500 hands. This in itself does not mean anything at all. Swings of far more than 11 BIs are normal for cash games. I also think the sample is to small to look at any of the more detailed statistics. However it does stand out to me, that your VPIP and especially PFR are very low for 6-max, and you also have a low 3-bet percentage of just 5, which helps to explain the low PFR.

So you seem to be playing a very tight style, where you only play the best hands, and all your 3-bets are basically for value. Its a style, we would traditionally call TAG and bordering on nit. This can be a winning style in the micros, but its not the most winning style, and it also does not challenge you to become better by experiencing more difficult spots with marginal hands.

Your nitty style is not the reason for your small loss of 11 BIs or at least not the main reason. But I still think, you should set yourself a goal of eventually getting all those numbers closer to a LAG or GTO style. Start by opening up your range from CO and BTN and attempt to steal the blinds more. And also throw in some light 3-bets from the same positions. If CO has opened, you can profitably 3-bet a lot of hands from BTN and put some pressure on him. You should probably also defend your blinds more especially the big blind to small raises without multiway action.

Your C-bet percentage is quite high, but this is likely related to preflop. Because when you only raise very strong hands preflop, then you end up on the flop with a strong range, that often wants to C-bet for value. And therefore it does not make much sense to dig deeply into postflop stats, when your preflop play is this far from GTO.

Finally if you think losing 11 BIs is "having a bad time", do yourself a favour and study the mathematical phenomenon of variance. This is a free tool, and if you plug in a standard deviation of 100, which is typical for NLH 6-max, and 7.500 hands you will see, that losing 11 BIs is within the 95% confidence interval for a player with a long term winrate of 5BB/100. So its a bit of a bad run but nothing extreme at all. The 1 million hand graph with these parameters show downswings of up to around 40BB.

Poker Variance Calculator

Poker Variance Calculator for cash games. Displays variance, possible downswings, upswings and probabilities depending on your win rate.

www.primedope.com

 

[Goggelheimer]

Your sample size is not representative (big enough) to give a rough estimation.

Maybe your cBet% is a bit high, could be more in the 65% ish range.
You lose too much in the BB, so your BB defense strategy doesn't work here, be more selective with your defense Hands.
Your win rate from the button is great in BB/100, but you play way too less hands, monetary it is too bad.

You should try to get a rough idea which hands to play with a free GTO Wizard account.
You can screenshot these ranges there for each position.

Other sources for free ranges may be the ranges from the new beginner strategy at pokerstrategy.com
(I can't link it here because links to other forum sources will be deleted).

Don't rely on statistical values from the HUD while playing if you have such low samples on players.
For the most values in standard HUD´s you need at least 100 better 200 to 300 Hands with this same player
and this is also on the lower side of sample size that you need to have a very rough view on this player.

See also: Carrot Corner Video on YouTube.

 

[fundiver199]

You lose too much in the BB, so your BB defense strategy doesn't work here, be more selective with your defense Hands.
Your win rate from the button is great in BB/100, but you play way too less hands, monetary it is too bad.

The sample is way to small to say anything about winrates from specific positions. From the BB for instance, if we assume a winrate of -30 BB / 100, which I think is very good, since you put in 100 BB / 100 with random hands out of position, then the 95% confidence interval is -89 to +30 BB / 100 assuming a standard variation of 100.

This is a huge span, so to identify potential positional leaks we need a way bigger sample. I would not even begin to look at this, until I have at a bare minimum 100.000 hands in a sample. Even then the standard variation from each seat is still 7,7 BB / 100, which could easily still lead to false conclusions. So if you really want to dig deep into this, ideally you want a sample closer to a million hands.

 

[WrongUsername]

the more u play the less variance will be.

 

[LUKADONCICMVP]

variance at poker is incredible high no matter what

 

[Station_Master]

You are down around 11 BIs over a small sample of 7.500 hands. This in itself does not mean anything at all. Swings of far more than 11 BIs are normal for cash games. I also think the sample is to small to look at any of the more detailed statistics. However it does stand out to me, that your VPIP and especially PFR are very low for 6-max, and you also have a low 3-bet percentage of just 5, which helps to explain the low PFR.

So you seem to be playing a very tight style, where you only play the best hands, and all your 3-bets are basically for value. Its a style, we would traditionally call TAG and bordering on nit. This can be a winning style in the micros, but its not the most winning style, and it also does not challenge you to become better by experiencing more difficult spots with marginal hands.

Your nitty style is not the reason for your small loss of 11 BIs or at least not the main reason. But I still think, you should set yourself a goal of eventually getting all those numbers closer to a LAG or GTO style. Start by opening up your range from CO and BTN and attempt to steal the blinds more. And also throw in some light 3-bets from the same positions. If CO has opened, you can profitably 3-bet a lot of hands from BTN and put some pressure on him. You should probably also defend your blinds more especially the big blind to small raises without multiway action.

Your C-bet percentage is quite high, but this is likely related to preflop. Because when you only raise very strong hands preflop, then you end up on the flop with a strong range, that often wants to C-bet for value. And therefore it does not make much sense to dig deeply into postflop stats, when your preflop play is this far from GTO.

Finally if you think losing 11 BIs is "having a bad time", do yourself a favour and study the mathematical phenomenon of variance. This is a free tool, and if you plug in a standard deviation of 100, which is typical for NLH 6-max, and 7.500 hands you will see, that losing 11 BIs is within the 95% confidence interval for a player with a long term winrate of 5BB/100. So its a bit of a bad run but nothing extreme at all. The 1 million hand graph with these parameters show downswings of up to around 40BB.

Poker Variance Calculator

Poker Variance Calculator for cash games. Displays variance, possible downswings, upswings and probabilities depending on your win rate.

www.primedope.com

Agree the general message but there is no way standard deviation is 100 at 5NL, the games are way too passive for that.

 

[fundiver199]

Agree the general message but there is no way standard deviation is 100 at 5NL, the games are way too passive for that.

Pokerdope state a range from 75-120 for NLH 6-max. For sure one can argue for a value at the low end of that spectrum, given that OP is playing 5NL and has a very nitty style himself. But even with a standard deviation of 75 instead of 100 a 11 BI downswing is nothing special.

 

[chump39]

You are down around 11 BIs over a small sample of 7.500 hands. This in itself does not mean anything at all. Swings of far more than 11 BIs are normal for cash games. I also think the sample is to small to look at any of the more detailed statistics. However it does stand out to me, that your VPIP and especially PFR are very low for 6-max, and you also have a low 3-bet percentage of just 5, which helps to explain the low PFR.

So you seem to be playing a very tight style, where you only play the best hands, and all your 3-bets are basically for value. Its a style, we would traditionally call TAG and bordering on nit. This can be a winning style in the micros, but its not the most winning style, and it also does not challenge you to become better by experiencing more difficult spots with marginal hands.

Your nitty style is not the reason for your small loss of 11 BIs or at least not the main reason. But I still think, you should set yourself a goal of eventually getting all those numbers closer to a LAG or GTO style. Start by opening up your range from CO and BTN and attempt to steal the blinds more. And also throw in some light 3-bets from the same positions. If CO has opened, you can profitably 3-bet a lot of hands from BTN and put some pressure on him. You should probably also defend your blinds more especially the big blind to small raises without multiway action.

Your C-bet percentage is quite high, but this is likely related to preflop. Because when you only raise very strong hands preflop, then you end up on the flop with a strong range, that often wants to C-bet for value. And therefore it does not make much sense to dig deeply into postflop stats, when your preflop play is this far from GTO.

Finally if you think losing 11 BIs is "having a bad time", do yourself a favour and study the mathematical phenomenon of variance. This is a free tool, and if you plug in a standard deviation of 100, which is typical for NLH 6-max, and 7.500 hands you will see, that losing 11 BIs is within the 95% confidence interval for a player with a long term winrate of 5BB/100. So its a bit of a bad run but nothing extreme at all. The 1 million hand graph with these parameters show downswings of up to around 40BB.

Poker Variance Calculator

Poker Variance Calculator for cash games. Displays variance, possible downswings, upswings and probabilities depending on your win rate.

www.primedope.com

You've given me a lot to consider and work on.
I really appreciate you taking the time

 

[chump39]

Your sample size is not representative (big enough) to give a rough estimation.

Maybe your cBet% is a bit high, could be more in the 65% ish range.
You lose too much in the BB, so your BB defense strategy doesn't work here, be more selective with your defense Hands.
Your win rate from the button is great in BB/100, but you play way too less hands, monetary it is too bad.

You should try to get a rough idea which hands to play with a free GTO Wizard account.
You can screenshot these ranges there for each position.

Other sources for free ranges may be the ranges from the new beginner strategy at pokerstrategy.com
(I can't link it here because links to other forum sources will be deleted).

Don't rely on statistical values from the HUD while playing if you have such low samples on players.
For the most values in standard HUD´s you need at least 100 better 200 to 300 Hands with this same player
and this is also on the lower side of sample size that you need to have a very rough view on this player.

See also: Carrot Corner Video on YouTube.

You are down around 11 BIs over a small sample of 7.500 hands. This in itself does not mean anything at all. Swings of far more than 11 BIs are normal for cash games. I also think the sample is to small to look at any of the more detailed statistics. However it does stand out to me, that your VPIP and especially PFR are very low for 6-max, and you also have a low 3-bet percentage of just 5, which helps to explain the low PFR.

So you seem to be playing a very tight style, where you only play the best hands, and all your 3-bets are basically for value. Its a style, we would traditionally call TAG and bordering on nit. This can be a winning style in the micros, but its not the most winning style, and it also does not challenge you to become better by experiencing more difficult spots with marginal hands.

Your nitty style is not the reason for your small loss of 11 BIs or at least not the main reason. But I still think, you should set yourself a goal of eventually getting all those numbers closer to a LAG or GTO style. Start by opening up your range from CO and BTN and attempt to steal the blinds more. And also throw in some light 3-bets from the same positions. If CO has opened, you can profitably 3-bet a lot of hands from BTN and put some pressure on him. You should probably also defend your blinds more especially the big blind to small raises without multiway action.

Your C-bet percentage is quite high, but this is likely related to preflop. Because when you only raise very strong hands preflop, then you end up on the flop with a strong range, that often wants to C-bet for value. And therefore it does not make much sense to dig deeply into postflop stats, when your preflop play is this far from GTO.

Finally if you think losing 11 BIs is "having a bad time", do yourself a favour and study the mathematical phenomenon of variance. This is a free tool, and if you plug in a standard deviation of 100, which is typical for NLH 6-max, and 7.500 hands you will see, that losing 11 BIs is within the 95% confidence interval for a player with a long term winrate of 5BB/100. So its a bit of a bad run but nothing extreme at all. The 1 million hand graph with these parameters show downswings of up to around 40BB.

Poker Variance Calculator

Poker Variance Calculator for cash games. Displays variance, possible downswings, upswings and probabilities depending on your win rate.

www.primedope.com

I don't know how GTO works preflop at the microstakes. Most NIT like players who PFR from early to mid-position, will call a 3bet about 70% of the time. This is calling to a NIT like me.

I know this is just one hand
I should have bet on the flop. Apart from that, any thoughts

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 0.05(BB)
BB ($6.08) [VPIP: 51.7% | PFR: 8.7% | AGG: 34.2% | Hands: 230]
UTG ($8.33) [VPIP: 26.3% | PFR: 18.5% | AGG: 29.7% | Hands: 4344]
UTG_1 ($5.23) [VPIP: 18.4% | PFR: 11.6% | AGG: 37% | Flop Agg: 31.5% | Turn Agg: 44.5% | River Agg: 48% | 3Bet: 7.6% | 4Bet: 20.6% | Hands: 9221]
MP ($5.72) [VPIP: 28.6% | PFR: 19.5% | AGG: 35.1% | Hands: 1327]
CO ($1.20) [VPIP: 56.6% | PFR: 13.4% | AGG: 33.9% | Hands: 621]
BTN ($5) [VPIP: 22.9% | PFR: 11.9% | AGG: 22.5% | Hands: 621]
HERO ($5) [VPIP: 18.1% | PFR: 12.2% | AGG: 33.3% | Flop Agg: 40% | Turn Agg: 30.1% | River Agg: 28.5% | 3Bet: 4.5% | Fold to 3Bet: 64.5% | 4Bet: 7.1% | Hands: 13308]

Dealt to Hero: A:club: Q:heart:

UTG Folds, UTG_1 Raises To $0.13, MP Folds, CO Calls $0.13, BTN Folds, HERO Raises To $0.45, BB Folds, UTG_1 Calls $0.32, CO Folds

Hero SPR on Flop: [4.21 effective]
Flop ($1.08): 4:diamond: A:spade: 8:spade:
HERO Checks, UTG_1 Checks

Turn ($1.08): 4:diamond: A:spade: 8:spade: 4:spade:
HERO Bets $1.03 (Rem. Stack: $3.52), UTG_1 Calls $1.03 (Rem. Stack: $3.75)

River ($3.14): 4:diamond: A:spade: 8:spade: 4:spade: 6:club:
HERO Checks, UTG_1 Bets $3.75 (allin), HERO Folds

[spoil]
UTG_1 wins: $2.98
[/spoil]

 

[Goggelheimer]

Hi the HH format is not used correctly.

Better use the original HH that you can export from DH2 in the CardsChat Handhistory converter.
Don't miss to check (switch on) the included replayer, makes it more convenient to view the hand.

No tricky FPS (fancy play syndrome) play on NL5, play your hand directly, delayed c-betting will not work.

You stab at the pot on the turn with a pot sized bet, which is way too high, a 2/3 to 3/4 pot sized bet could do that job too,
if not, you would have saved 12,5 BB.
As the hand was played on the river this would have been the better way to play the hand.

Why no C-bet on the flop, to continue the preflop aggression, that you had shown, you have top pair with a decent kicker.
You have to protect your one pair hand with this flop, make flush draws pay the prize.
The hand with this drawy flop is not a 3 street value hand, but the c-bet on the flop of about 2/3 pot size makes it clear that you have a hand.
The turn card is not the best, to play check/fold on a bet here is not the worst way to play the hand.
If it goes check/check on the turn, you can give up the hand on the river if there is any substantial bet
(half pot to oversized pot bet) after your check .
But keep in mind your win% is the yellow 50,0 % and the MDF to different bet sizes shown in the table below (can be found here).
So even with this over pot bet you only have to win in 33 - 38 % of the time to run break even (very thight 3-bet calling range from the HJ caller).

The other side of the coin is do they bluff that much on NL5?

 

[fundiver199]

The hand history is ok, although some people might prefer the text format rather than the forum code format. The latter does have the advantage of including some HUD stats though.

Preflop
This is a fine spot to squeeze, but your sizing is to small. Out of position your standard 3-bet should be 4X the size of the original raise (3X in position) and if there are callers, you should add their call as well. Pretty much like you add limps to your standard first in sizing. So in this case it should be $0,65. Of course this is not exact science, and you could go a bit smaller or larger as well, but $0,45 is definitely to small. The issue with this is, you dont get any fold equity, so you can never have bluffs, and you are just massaging the pot larger, when you are out of position.

Also since you have HUD-stats, its also a consideration to just call here even from SB. I know, I have said, your 3-bet percentage is to low. But you should look to add more 3-bets in position before you add them out of position. And this is also a nitty player with a PFR of just 11,6%, which we adjust to by calling and 3-betting them with a stronger range. UTG and MP are the players, I would mainly attack with light 3-bets on this table.

Flop
I am not crazy about slowplaying here. You have a pretty strong hand with top pair second kicker, so just make a small bet for value like 40-50c.

Turn
Now there are 3 spades, and you dont have one, so your relative hand strength got worse, and its more difficult now to get called by hands like a weak ace with no spade, that are drawing thin against you. For that reason I dont like bombing the pot, like you did. Its create a situation, where its difficult to bet the river for value, and maybe you are not even good, if he gives you action. As played I do like a delayed C-bet though but not this large. Maybe like 60c at most. It will also create a better river situation, where you can still bet for value without jamming or getting accidentally committed to the pot.

River
The river is pretty much a brick, but you still check, which I presume is due to the situation discussed above. Presumably the idea was then to check-call, but he jam, which is a slight overbet. I dont think, he does this for value with a worse hand than yours, and I dont think, a nitty 5NL player like this has many bluffs, when he put in his entire stack on the river in a 3-bet pot. So as the hand went down, I like your decision to fold.

It would be a little better to call, if you had Q of spades, because then at least you would block some flush combos like KQ or QJ of spades. But against a player like this I probably fold anyway, because I just dont think, he is bluffing anywhere nearly as much, as we need to make a profitable call. But if you want to occationally call here just to make sure, you are not always getting bluffed, then do it, when you have a spade in your hand. This is more important than your kicker, since the opponent is representing at least two pair.

 

[chump39]

Hi the HH format is not used correctly.

Better use the original HH that you can export from DH2 in the CardsChat Handhistory converter.
Don't miss to check (switch on) the included replayer, makes it more convenient to view the hand.

No tricky FPS (fancy play syndrome) play on NL5, play your hand directly, delayed c-betting will not work.

You stab at the pot on the turn with a pot sized bet, which is way too high, a 2/3 to 3/4 pot sized bet could do that job too,
if not, you would have saved 12,5 BB.
As the hand was played on the river this would have been the better way to play the hand.

Why no C-bet on the flop, to continue the preflop aggression, that you had shown, you have top pair with a decent kicker.
You have to protect your one pair hand with this flop, make flush draws pay the prize.
The hand with this drawy flop is not a 3 street value hand, but the c-bet on the flop of about 2/3 pot size makes it clear that you have a hand.
The turn card is not the best, to play check/fold on a bet here is not the worst way to play the hand.
If it goes check/check on the turn, you can give up the hand on the river if there is any substantial bet
(half pot to oversized pot bet) after your check .
But keep in mind your win% is the yellow 50,0 % and the MDF to different bet sizes shown in the table below (can be found here).
So even with this over pot bet you only have to win in 33 - 38 % of the time to run break even (very thight 3-bet calling range from the HJ caller).

The other side of the coin is do they bluff that much on NL5?

View attachment 384683

View attachment 384681View attachment 384684

Yes, I played that flop poorly. I was thinking I'm cbetting too much from OOP.
I think I need to go back to the drawing board with post flop play. Can you recommend anywhere? I do have flopzilla pro
Unfortunately, I'm in Australia and can't open your link to 888 our government blocks poker sites. If our government can't tax it, it's blocked!

 

[chump39]

The hand history is ok, although some people might prefer the text format rather than the forum code format. The latter does have the advantage of including some HUD stats though.

Preflop
This is a fine spot to squeeze, but your sizing is to small. Out of position your standard 3-bet should be 4X the size of the original raise (3X in position) and if there are callers, you should add their call as well. Pretty much like you add limps to your standard first in sizing. So in this case it should be $0,65. Of course this is not exact science, and you could go a bit smaller or larger as well, but $0,45 is definitely to small. The issue with this is, you dont get any fold equity, so you can never have bluffs, and you are just massaging the pot larger, when you are out of position.

Also since you have HUD-stats, its also a consideration to just call here even from SB. I know, I have said, your 3-bet percentage is to low. But you should look to add more 3-bets in position before you add them out of position. And this is also a nitty player with a PFR of just 11,6%, which we adjust to by calling and 3-betting them with a stronger range. UTG and MP are the players, I would mainly attack with light 3-bets on this table.

Flop
I am not crazy about slowplaying here. You have a pretty strong hand with top pair second kicker, so just make a small bet for value like 40-50c.

Turn
Now there are 3 spades, and you dont have one, so your relative hand strength got worse, and its more difficult now to get called by hands like a weak ace with no spade, that are drawing thin against you. For that reason I dont like bombing the pot, like you did. Its create a situation, where its difficult to bet the river for value, and maybe you are not even good, if he gives you action. As played I do like a delayed C-bet though but not this large. Maybe like 60c at most. It will also create a better river situation, where you can still bet for value without jamming or getting accidentally committed to the pot.

River
The river is pretty much a brick, but you still check, which I presume is due to the situation discussed above. Presumably the idea was then to check-call, but he jam, which is a slight overbet. I dont think, he does this for value with a worse hand than yours, and I dont think, a nitty 5NL player like this has many bluffs, when he put in his entire stack on the river in a 3-bet pot. So as the hand went down, I like your decision to fold.

It would be a little better to call, if you had Q of spades, because then at least you would block some flush combos like KQ or QJ of spades. But against a player like this I probably fold anyway, because I just dont think, he is bluffing anywhere nearly as much, as we need to make a profitable call. But if you want to occationally call here just to make sure, you are not always getting bluffed, then do it, when you have a spade in your hand. This is more important than your kicker, since the opponent is representing at least two pair.

Yes, I played that flop poorly. I was thinking I'm cbetting too much from OOP. I confused myself!
I need to relearn post flop play, can you recommend any resources?

 

[Goggelheimer]

Yes, I played that flop poorly. I was thinking I'm cbetting too much from OOP.
I think I need to go back to the drawing board with post flop play. Can you recommend anywhere? I do have flopzilla pro
Unfortunately, I'm in Australia and can't open your link to 888 our government blocks poker sites. If our government can't tax it, it's blocked!

Well betting, checking or calling should be done with a reason.
You have equity in that spot, but you don't know if you are ahead or way behind, so betting may give some information.
This spot is not about bluffing.

Your account info says you are USA located.


Try out GTO wizard ( free acount ), very limited but 1 Hand per day can be studied.
I tried to print out the site and send the printout as pdf to you via private chat from the board, but file is too large.
Sadly it is only available in German language.

 

[fundiver199]

I need to relearn post flop play, can you recommend any resources?

Even though you are a cash game player, there is still a lot of valuable concepts in the free CC 30 day course. You can just skip the sessions about tournament specific concepts like ICM or short stacked play.