How many hands are needed to know if your strategy works?

[maxstell]

My question is: how many hands do you think you need to play to know if a strategy is good or bad? 100 hands? 1000?
I want to aim for the long term but I would like to read your opinions.

 

[SpanRmonka]

Well its def a lot more than that.....I think you would need 10k/20k hands minimum to start to get an idea,

 

[Mig32]

From my own experience, 100 or even 1,000 hands isn't really enough to judge a strategy. Variance in poker can make a bad strategy look good (or a solid one look terrible) over a small sample. I personally think you start getting real insight after at least 10,000 hands, and ideally 50,000+ to spot consistent patterns in winrate and leaks.

That said, I also believe quality of review matters as much as quantity. Even in a smaller sample, if you're analyzing your hands carefully — understanding why a play worked or failed — you can evolve quickly. I’ve changed some strategies after just 500 hands, but only because I saw repeating mistakes and backed it up with study.

So for me, the combo is: play thousands of hands, but also review deeply. That’s where real improvement lives.

This thread below may could help you explore this aspect:

How many hands needed to really evaluate ROI ?

Hello CC members, Everything in the title :D I wonder from which amount of hands played does ROI start to really make sense. Thanks for your answers.

www.cardschat.com

Good luck with your strategies!

 

[S3mper]

If by good you mean long term winner, it depends on your playing style if it leans towards very aggressive or very tight you will need more hands as variance plays a larger role for LAG players and tighter players have a slower win rate convergence. Your win rate over the sample matters as well the higher the winrate the more confidence you can have (obviously)

I would aim for 20,000 hands for someone with a strategy in the middle and if you are winning 7bb/100 (EV) over that sample you can probably be somewhat confident you're winning and if your win rate is around 3bb/100 you'll probably need around 100k hands to know for sure

I would say at around 200k hands you'll know regardless of the win rate.

 

[Poker Orifice]

Tell me the strategy via a Hand History example.

I'm pretty sure I'll be able to tell you if it has potential 'or' if it sucks! In ONE hand!

(you can send private message if you don't want to reveal the 'strategy' here in the open forum)

 

[fundiver199]

The answer can be found here:

Poker Variance Calculator

Poker Variance Calculator for cash games. Displays variance, possible downswings, upswings and probabilities depending on your win rate.

www.primedope.com

 

[dreamer13]

It is important to remember that poker is a game of probability and strategy. Success depends on the ability to make rational decisions, consider probabilities and read your opponents. Be careful, assess the situation and do not risk more than you can afford to lose.Playing in different styles is one of the key aspects of strategy in Texas Hold'em poker.

 

[TeUnit]

100 hands means almost nothing, at 10k you would see things start to emerge, 100k can be pretty sure, and you can have 95% confidence at 1million hands. This is assuming a win rate of 3 to 5 BBs/100.

If you are winning at say 10BBs/100 you will see the trend emerge earlier the higher the win rate.

 

[Aleksandr1991]

This depends on many factors, including the style of play and the type of poker.​

I think tens of thousands

 

[_420_420_]

I think you can judge your overall strategy after several thousand hands... but we have to look in the microscope and try to figure out if we are playing the right strategy in the game we are currently in. Game selection is important in itself, but we are going to be playing in different types of games with different players most of the time. So, you need to be able to step back and look at the big picture, but don't forget to make sure we are making the right adjustments along the way.