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Expected Value article by FPaulsson
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[QUOTE="ChuckTs, post: 394012, member: 467"] ok; was bored at home and decided to run through some EV situations and I know i'm doin something wrong, because all the situations (bet, check-raise, etc) have either all +EV or have the same EV...very confusing for me. I'm going to try and write this down as i had it on my sheet, and if anyone could help me (nudge nudge FP ;)) as to what i'm doin wrong, that'd be great. Limit Holdem: In BB, it is folded around to the button who raises, its folded by SB and you call (for whatever reason you don't reraise) with TT To give myself some kind of sense as what my equity is in this hand, I give the Button a set of hands that he would raise with: AK through A4, KQ, KJ, KT, QJ, QT, JT 9T and all the pairs down to 77 (so 25 hands) SO... the flop comes 8-3-2 with 4.5 SB in the pot I have 72% equity here (only 7/25 possible hands that button is playing can beat me at this point) to make it very straightforward, i've set the rule that the button will raise if he's ahead, and fold if he's not (if he raises me, i will fold) so here are two options: bet: (0.72*5.5 SB) - (0.28*1) = +3.68 check-raise: (0.72*7.5 SB) - (0.28*2 SB) = +4.84 is this correct? i'm following this formula (can't remember if it's correct or not) (equity * [your bets that round + pot]) - ([%100-equity] * [your bets that round]) [/QUOTE]
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Expected Value article by FPaulsson
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