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Message: [QUOTE="F Paulsson, post: 392656, member: 6979"] Back at the hotel, and I just thought I'd have a look at the semi-bluff, like the one listed above. I've changed the scenario somewhat, though. The semi-bluff is very widely used, and I suspect that it's overused. So here's the calculation (I'm doing this "blind," e.g. I don't know what these calculations will yield). The idea behind the semi-bluff is that we bet or raise with a drawing hand because we have two ways to win: By either making the other person(s) fold, or by catching our draw. The theory behind it is that the combined chances of these two events can make it an overall +EV play. So let's look at a common scenario and determine [B]how often our opponents need to fold to make a semi-bluff correct[/B]. All other aspects of this will be ignored, e.g. implied odds that are improved/worsened by us raising now. For simplicity's sake, we'll assume that if we just call, we'll be able to win 2BBs on the river (we have position, call now, and then raise on the river and get called if we hit), and if we raise, we'll only win 1 more BB on the river (1 person calls the raise on the turn, and check/call the river). Scenario: Three people to the flop and turn. It was raised preflop, one bet (from middle position) on flop which both other players call, and now the middle position player has bet again, just as you picked up a flush draw. You are on the button. Other assumptions: The first position player is very unlikely to call two bets cold on the turn - if we raise, we're pretty sure he will fold. Actually, let's say he folds anyway. How often does the bettor (MP) have to fold for this play to be +EV? There are now 6SB from preflop, 3SB from flop, and 1BB from turn in the pot = 5.5BB. The different scenarios: [B]You call[/B]. 20% of the time, you will spike your flush (and win 2 more bets on the river), 80% of the time you will lose 1BB. This gives you an expected value of 0.2*(7.5) + (-1)*0.8 = 1.5 - 0.8 = 0.7BB. [B]You raise. How often must villain fold for this to be better than 0.7BB?[/B] Let's say that he will call X percent of the time. It's clear, then, that the equation is this: (0.2*X)(7.5) + (0.8*X)(-2) + (1-X)(5.5) = 0.7 So we solve for X. 1.5X -1.6X + 5.5 - 5.5X = 0.7 -0.1X - 5.5X = 0.7 - 5.5 -5.6X = -4.8 X = 4.8 / 5.6 = 0.85 Uh. Okay, that actually surprised me. Apparently, for the turn semi-bluff raise to be a better move than to just call, we need to trust that the bettor will fold 85% of the time or more. I feel like my math is messed up somewhere, because this is higher than I expected. Then again, because of messed up airconditioning (read: no airconditioning) I was awake until 4am this morning and had breakfast at 7, so chances are I'm not thinking straight and that my calculations suck. If anyone wants to check my math, feel free - I'd like to know if it really is this bad to semi-bluff raise the turn. Cheers, Fredrik [/QUOTE]

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