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Message: [QUOTE="F Paulsson, post: 397137, member: 6979"] Right, but our odds need to increase a whole lot. No, and this is the problem. In a fourhanded flop, the pot is usually around 8 bets. You're putting in two bets to increase your equity with a couple of percent in a pot that's 8 bets. If the pot is 10 bets and you can gain 10% equity, you break even. But gaining 10% equity is difficult. Let's look at this example: You have KT on a A-T-4 flop. You think one person has an ace, so you're not best. By raising, however, you're hoping to drive out QJ, who - if your hand hits a K - will improve to a straight. Thereby, you're "buying yourself 3 outs" which is cool. 3 outs with two cards to come is about 10% equity, so if the pot is more than 10 bets, you've made a good move. [B]Problem[/B]: You are not 100% sure that someone actually has QJ. And if you estimate the chance of someone having QJ to be, say, 50% (still an extremely good read would be needed to be this precise) the pot would have to be 20 bets for you to profitably make this move. And now the problems begin: An inside straight would be getting 10-1 on a call if the pot was 20 bets, so they still wouldn't fold. Here's a good argument. In fact, it's with this play as with raising to get a free card: It's the combination of different advantages that can make it alright. Consider this: KT on a A-T-4 board. The following are reasons to bet: [B]1. Your hand could be the best[/B]. You can't [I]know[/I] that anyone has an ace. It may be likely, but not certain. [B]2. A raise could drive out hands like QJ and buy you outs[/B]. If QJ folds, you have 3 more outs to win. [B]3. You may be able to get a free card.[/B] If you raise and everyone else folds, you may check the turn if you like. [B]4. You may be able to muscle out a better hand by bluffing later on. [/B]Let's say that your hand is the strongest right now, and you raise the guy who bet with JT. On the turn, a Q falls, and suddenly the person who had KQ and was drawing to the straight has a better hand than you. However, he doesn't know that. For all he knows, you have the pair of aces (which you certainly represented) so he may fold on the turn or the river if you bet again, despite having the best hand. Combined, they make a compelling argument for raising. But reason #2 is very, very rarely strong enough by itself to raise. And when it is, it's usually because the pot is so big that others get the correct odds to call even two bets. By the way, my post count was 666 before this post, but now it's all ruined. :( [/QUOTE]

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