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Message: [QUOTE="Gothfunc, post: 436163, member: 7666"] Hi Jesus, thanks for bringing this thread to my attention. I've pondered over it and come to the conclusion that follows. I'm a beginner, so please point out flaws in my logic. Since you haven't got a read on the player, we have to give them the respect a typical player would receive. Firstly, what's he putting you on (ignoring his hand)? Either tptk, flush draw, or an overpair. If he hit his set he'll want to make the odds bad to draw to a flush. If you have an overpair you might find it hard to lay down, so he's still good to move in. Given this information, what can we put him on? AJh, A2h, A3h, 44, 55, JJ are the major candidates. I'd also include the other AXh combinations, as he has a 46.6% of drawing out, plus the chance he'll push you off your tptk or draw. In total, this gives him 68.2% equity from our perspective. Our equity is therefore 31.8%, or roughly 2:1 against. The current pot is 36.25, but if we're calling we're allin, so that's +5 making it 41.25, and 19 to 'call'. This equates to a pot of 2.2:1. In theory, the figures say this move justifies a call. Unfortunately, we wouldn't be leaving ourselved much margin for error, and it'd be hard to work this all out so quickly. Let's try though: We have him on nut flush draw or 3 sets. There are two hearts down, and we assume he has the ace, leaving 10 combinations. 3 sets which have 3 combinations each compared to the draw. 3 x 3 = 9 What's the chance of us beating the sets? We have 2 outs, and 2 cards to come. 2 x 4 = 8% 9 x 8 = 72 What's the chance of us beating the flush draws? Well he's got some other outs as well as the flush, aces and maybe the straight, so let's hazard a guess at 55% in our favor. 10x55 = 550 Let's add them together and work out the average. 72+550 = 622 622/19 = 32.8% Close enough. I guess we might round off the 19 to 20 for that last bit just to make it easier to work out in our head, making it approximately 31%. So it's a close call as far as I see it. I think I would call if I completed that calculation in time. [/QUOTE]

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