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MDF on small river bet
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[QUOTE="fundiver199, post: 6191358, member: 397965"] Preflop I actually prefer to just fold and not even get involved in this sticky spot. 4-betting TT generally get better hands to call or 5-bet and worse hands to fold. So I dont think, 4-betting is a tremendously profitable option, and I dont think, calling is profitable either. We are not closing action, and if HJ come over the top with a 4-bet, we will need to fold. And even when that does not happen, we are going to be out of position against one or more commonly two opponents with a hand, which is extremely difficult to play, unless we flop a set. And if we are basically setmining, is TT really all that different from 22? Flop We flop an overpair, so other than hitting a set, this was pretty much the best flop, we could hope for. And yet our hand is still only a bluff catcher. If CO has JJ+ or a set, we are still drawing to two outs, and if he is bluffing, he typically has at least 25% equity. So sometimes he will either get there or be able to use a scary card to get us off. Like he has KQs, and an ace hits. So I kind of hate life already, and when he bet so large into two opponents, I am close to just letting it go right now. But then of course I should just have let it go preflop, which I would. Turn Fairly safe card, and AX did pick up a gutshot, so he might continue bluffing with that. But you are facing another very large bet setting it up for a river jam, so you are definitely putting your stack at risk, if you continue. River Now AX got there, which basically mean, all his bluffs got there, because what else is he taking as a bluff for that large sizing on the turn? If he cant have hands like KQ or KJ, because he would just give up with those on the flop or turn, then there is basically nothing left in his range, which you still beat, so you definitely cant call, even though you are getting good odds. You could actually consider jamming and turning your hand into a bluff trying to get him to fold JJ-KK. But the issue is, how can you actually have an A or a 6, that gets here? Its kind of difficult to say the least, so if he can hand read, he might sniff that out. Or he might have the A himself obviously. So on balance I probably fold. Conclusion For me the main point in this hand is actually preflop. I just dont think, its profitable to put yourself into this bluff catching situation out of position in a 3-bet pot. Its one thing defending TT to a 3-bet after open raising. But here you were not yet involved and not closing action, and then you can just get out of the way and wait for the button to come to you in the next hand. [/QUOTE]
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