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Message: [QUOTE="Dorkus Malorkus, post: 460324, member: 6020"] [COLOR=black]Well we need to assign probabilities to the possible outcomes.[/COLOR] [COLOR=black]- JJ, QQ, KK would almost certainly fold here <-- 10%, assume 100% fold (incorrect but for simplicity's sake)[/COLOR] [COLOR=black]- If your opponent has AT+ I think they could well fold to this raise. <-- 50%, assume 75% folds, 25% you get all-in.[/COLOR] [COLOR=black]- Flush draws may be scared off, or may gamble <-- 20%, assume 50% push, 50% fold.[/COLOR] [COLOR=black]- Two pair is going to call <-- 10%, 100% allin[/COLOR] [COLOR=black]- trips are obviously going to call <-- 10%, 100% allin (discount 33 for simplicity).[/COLOR] Allin and win – we win net $74.85 Allin and lose – we lose net $72.10 Villain folds – we win net $15.50 EV(Villain has KK-JJ) = +$15.50 @ 10% EV(Villain has AT+) = ($15.50*0.75)+($74.85*0.25) = +$30.34 @ 50% EV(Villain has flushdraw) = ($15.50*0.5)+0.5*(($74.85*0.65)+(-$72.10*0.35)) = +$19.45 @ 20% EV(Villain has twopair) = ($74.85*0.9)+(-$72.10*0.1) = +$60.17 @ 10% (I'm at work so no PStove but I'm guessing we're ~90% to win against A8/A4/A3 with one card to come) EV(Villain has AA/88) = ($74.85*0.05)+(-$72.10*0.95) = -$64.76 @ 10% EV(Range) = ($15.50*0.1)+($30.34*0.5)+($19.45*0.2)+($60.17*0.1)+(-$64.76*0.1) = 1.5 + 15.17 + 3.89 + 6.01 – 6.48 = +$20.09 Even if we tweak the numbers hugely and say 30% villain has AT+ and 30% he has AA/88 (which is just not feasible imo), we get: EV(Range) = ($15.10*0.1)+($30.34*0.3)+($19.45*0.2)+($60.17*0.1)+(-$64.76*0.3) = 1.5 + 9.1 + 3.89 + 6.01 – 19.42 = +$1.08 ...and remember we're also discounting (the admittedly small possibility that) 33 and any possibility KK-JJ will call or push. We're also discounting the probability that villain will just call the turn bet (although he is almost certainly committed then to call a river poosh anyway), so the calculation is flawed but reasonably accurate. [/QUOTE]

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