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Message: [QUOTE="Bombjack, post: 460083, member: 11914"] Was talking really about the decision not to raise on the flop - at that point it's 6 times more likely Villain has AA rather than Ah Kh. When the Ace comes on the turn it's only 3 times more likely. If you include AhQh and AhJh it's evens... so if you're looking at the turn decision it is more likely I suppose that Villain has a heart-suited Ace than AA. She could still bet here with KK but the push then wouldn't make sense. Of course the flop bet could just be a continuation bet, in which case AK random suits is more likely than AA or and AhXh on the Turn. Evaluating the likelihood of AK versus AA on the turn depends really on a read of whether the raiser will put in a continuation bet when she misses with AK. A lot of players won't bet into multiple opponents when they miss. It would have helped if I'd raised on the flop. I seem to almost have talked myself into calling.... [/QUOTE]