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Leading the Nuts Heads Up?
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[QUOTE="Bombjack, post: 443300, member: 11914"] I'd tend to disagree Four Dogs. The only way that this board is dangerous is if a spade comes on the river AND your heads-up opponent holds 2 spades. (In any hand, 90% of the time there will be two card of the same suit on the board by the turn.) The chances of the former are 20% and the latter (given the former) are 1 in 20 - i.e. about it's about 4% you'll get beaten by a flush if you check here. The only other way you can be beaten is if he's slow-playing a set (unlikely since no pre-flop raise - mandatory pretty much with a pair heads-up) AND the board pairs on the river. Minimal risk of that. You could also get counterfeited and split if he has a Jack or Ten and the other one comes on the river... that's 3 outs (6%) * the chances of him holding one of those 6 cards, i.e. not very much. So overall the board's not dangerous at all. The reason you bet though, is because he doesn't know you have the nuts. You could have bottom / middle pair, or be bluffing for all he knows. He's checked, so he's probably not very strong, so you need to [I]sell[/I] your hand, i.e. bet an amount you think he'll call. Try around half the pot. [/QUOTE]
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