€500 NL HE Full Ring: QTo vs. a late position raiser

primrose

primrose

Visionary
Bronze Level
Joined
Mar 29, 2024
Total posts
645
Chips
374
Game
Hold'em
Game Format
No Limit
Stakes
$2/$5
Table Format
Full (8-10 seats)
Currency
(This is another 5-5 hand, as always played in a casino.)

Here, the UTG+2 players limps (position before LJ) and the CO makes it 25. I'm in the BN with :qc4: :10s4: .

Usually this is an easy fold. However, the CO (same villain from this hand) does this with so many hands that I legitimately don't think I'm behind his range (he'll play 86o if he's feeling like it). So if I'm not and I have position, it follows that a fold is incorrect. I consider 3betting but I don't love 3betting with weak broadways out of fear of being dominated when I get called. So I flat. UTG+2 calls. We're all reasonably deep stacked.

Flop comes :2h4: :6s4: :9c4: (Pot=80). It checks to me. As I mentioned in the other thread, this kind "probably no one hit it" flop is a texture that CO loves to attack -- if I bet here, I have a feeling I'll get raised. And even though villain's range is wide, I don't want to see a raise with Q high. I check.

Turn comes :jc4: (Pot=80). UTG+2 donks 15 and CO raises to 50. Even though the Jc changes the texture, the UTG+2 bet is super weak, and I know CO knows it's super weak, so I don't believe this raise at all. If I still had nothing I would still fold, but I have an OESD now, which seems too strong against what I suspect is nothing. I debate 3betting or flatting. This is a pretty difficult choice imo. I decide to flat with the intention of putting in a chunky bet on most Rivers, maybe 80% Pot, assuming I don't hit. I'm ready to raise on the River as well, if CO bets again. UTG+2 folds, confirming that he was weak.

River comes :10h4: (Pot=195). CO checks. I was going to bluff, but now I'm not because I think I'm probably ahead with the T -- but my hand is marginal so value betting makes no sense, either (it's not like a weak range means he can't have a J). So I check, expecting to probably win the Pot. I would have probably called a pretty big bet with this hand as well.

Alright let's see what garbage hand Villain was goofing off with. Reveal:
Villain shows :ad4: :ah4: which was obviously not at all what I was expecting. I guess this is a good reminder not to get stuck in your own narrative, and also that, if a range is wide, that doesn't mean the premiums are excluded. Even an absolute maniac who raises 50% of hands preflop will still play Aces. And the reverse also holds (i.e., the reveal doesn't prove his range wasn't really wide).

Idk, this was just a very strange hand where all of my assumptions were completely wrong, so I thought it was interesting enough to share. The way villain played this was also strange but that part doesn't surprise me so much; this is a player who almost bets more often when he doesn't have it.
 
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