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Message: [QUOTE="ArcaneHuman, post: 6770646, member: 1024466"] Hello everyone. I'm starting to try to think more in terms of equity and pot odds and such and a scenario came up for me related to this. I can really use some advice about what to analyze mathematically in this kind of situation. In other words... if i had enough time, i could sit there and figure out all kinds of things. but what are the most important things to use poker math for here and how do i perform the calculations? The title of this post says it all. "How to think mathematically about building a pot for the nut flush draw". In this particular hand, I got all my chips in the middle by the river after the right card came and I won this hand but obviously i'm not going to hit my draw every time. So i'm looking to use mathematics to see if this was a good play or if my bet sizing is a bit too hopeful. Stacks about 100 bb Hero has As Jd in the Big Blind MP villain limps 1bb CO limps 1bb SB villain limps 1bb Hero raises to 4bb (probably should have raised a bit higher with so many limpers honestly) MP folds CO and SB call (pot 13 bb) Flop Comes... 6s 10s 9s This gives hero approximately 36% chance to hit the nut flush. Hero raises to 7bb CO villain calls SB villain calls (pot 34 bb) Turn... i don't remember the exact card but it was a total brick Chance of hitting the draw is now at ~18% Hero raises 14bb (41% of the pot with only an 18 percent chance at hitting the draw) good move? bad move? Of course... there's implied odds though. CO calls SB folds (pot 52 bb) i don't think the next street (river) is very important for this hand analysis but the card was the king of spades. For me this was a pretty standard pot size push. So obviously sometimes this play will work and sometimes it won't but how do i think about this in terms of poker math to make sure i'm winning in the long run, and hopefully to be able to figure out how much i am making over the long run. [/QUOTE]

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