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Message: [QUOTE="Aballinamion, post: 6699091, member: 289533"] Nice hand mate. Taking into consideration that you opened 2.5x and villain 3-bets to 4.2x, we already put villain into AQ+ and QQ+ as values and some suited aces and broadways as bluffs. The flop comes medium to us with a bunch of backdoors and a queen. When villain checks we are assuming that villain missed and wants to control pot. So we remove TPTK and flush draws that would be betting this flop in a high frequency. We could be betting here, but we just called 3-bet preflop and we can get tons of calls and raises which will put us in an awkward spot. The turn isn’t the best card possible but we believe villain doesn’t own this flush of spades, otherwise it would be betting the flop. Villain bets white small here and we can never fold and never raise. Although villain doesn’t own the flush right now, it can be holding spades on its range and it is a spades better than our spades. Villain betting small is a strong tell that it is not concerned about river being another spades. If villain hadn’t any spades on its range it would be betting more here. Now the turn completed another possible straight (turn completes flush of spades and a minor straight). Now comes an interesting fact: there are only 35 BB in the pot and villain... shoves?!?!? Is it betting nearly 83 BB to win a pot of 35 when you fold? But this isn’t the most interesting fact: if villain had any straight it would be jamming this river like that? Of course not, for there’s a huge chance of all losing hands to fold and only the flushes to call. If villain had the nut flush it would be jamming river like this? Once again we believe not, for there’s a great potential of losing value of dominated hands. Top pairs, two pairs and sets shouldn’t be jamming river as well, at maximum betting a thin, close sizing. Another point is that if you are a regular playing NLHE 50 and you have no readings on villain, there’s a good chance that this opponent is a recreational player. The field of NLHE 50 is very small, almost all players know one another, so if this opponent is new it could be one taking his shots. If villain wanted to convince us that it had the nuts OTR, it should’ve c-bet flop>c-bet turn and then jammed river. And this is a very good reading of yours! Many times we could be overfoldind in spots like this, for we don’t have much time to think and analyze the hand as we have here, so very good gut feeling, but checking analytically, we perceive that villain’s line hasn’t coherence and strength. Best regards; [/QUOTE]

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