$5 NLHE 6-max: Facing overbet on turn after missed cbet with TPTK

[leeroy818]

pokerstars Zoom, Hold'em No Limit - $0.02/$0.05 - 6 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG: $5.83 (117 bb)
MP (Hero): $5.56 (111 bb)
CO: $10.42 (208 bb)
BU: $5.96 (119 bb)
SB: $10.19 (204 bb)
BB: $3.58 (72 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.07) Hero is MP with Q♥ A♣
UTG raises to $0.11, Hero 3-bets to $0.35, 4 players fold, UTG calls $0.24

Flop: ($0.77) 9♦ J♥ A♦ (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($0.77) 8♣ (2 players)
UTG bets $1.11, MP (Hero) folds

Total pot: $0.77 (Rake: $0.03)
UTG wins $0.74


I believe villain to be a thinking, aggressive reg. Not sure exactly how good they are, but certainly capable of taking some exploitative lines.

My thoughts at the time:

Preflop: AQo isn't always in my 3B range MP vs UTG, but I think villain is opening wide enough for me to use the hand here.

Flop: Perhaps a fairly standard cbet spot, but I don't think V has many worse Ax combos in his range here - ATs is possible, but all other Ax combos he should have beat me (apart from AQ, but that combo might have the Qd and have slightly more equity than me anyway). I can get called by worse in the form of flush draws, but I suspect V probably plays his flushes on this board quite aggressively by check-raising, and I didn't really want to call a check-raise, as JJ and 99 could also take that line and then I'm in a world of trouble! The plan after checking back flop was to fire any reasonable turn if checked to again.

Turn: I don't think this card is actually that bad for us, as I don't think villain has QT or T7 in his range. Only really hits him if he has pocket 8's (QTs is possible I guess, but it feels like an unlikely hand to continue with OOP after I 3bet his UTG open. And we block combos of it too). When villain leads for 1.5x pot, I tank and then fold... I've been thinking about it for a while and I still don't know if, overall, this was right, or I should be calling turn and potentially folding river to more aggression or bluff catching on non-diamond runouts. Personally I think V either has KQdd, 99, JJ. Maybe 88.

Interested to hear what others think V's range looks like, and what you would have done in this spot (on all streets!).

Thanks for any input!

 

[Casey55]

I think you can bet flop and call a decently sized check-raise, you say villain is aggressive so then its likely when he check raises he has some bluffs in his range to so we can call since we have TPTK.

I think you can get called by more than FD’s, QT, KJ,KT possibly. QJ.

 

[Sidetracked]

If his overbet range is balanced, he's put you in a tough spot.

As played, I think folding the turn is too tight. He may very well be taking advantage of your perceived weakness on the flop. You can't check the flop with your hand only to fold to a bet on the turn.

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
I think, its fine to to a combination of calling and 3-betting here. Your sizing looks fine as well. When he open this small, I would put him on a pretty wide range, and I would also expect, that a lot of that range continue to a 3-bet. This is sort of the whole point in opening so small. Its almost the same as limping into the pot, and it allow him to see more flops and not being pushed off his equity preflop while still maintaining some fold equity against the players in the blinds. So maybe he dont have hands like QTo, but QTs, KTs, JTs, all those sort of hands are certainly in his range going to the flop as well as most if not all pocket pairs.

Flop
I lean towards going for a small C-bet like 30-40% pot with my entire range on this board. Keep the initiative and sometimes take it down right there. I can get on board with checking also though, because I dont think, you hand is good for 3 streets of value, and it gives you a strong hand to use as a bluff catcher on later streets.

Turn
Obvoiusly the plan was to call a bet from him, but when he overbets, its completely reasonable to stop and reevaluate. Its essentially the same as getting check-raised, because it recreates the threat of a very large pot, which was exactly, what you were trying to prevent by checking back the flop.

Right off the bat I am sure, everyone can agree, he is not taking this sizing for value with a hand worse than AQ. So your hand is now a bluffcatcher. If you want to play GTO poker, its probably a hand, that should call now and then fold on most rivers. However there is absolutely nothing wrong with playing a more exploitative style and trying to figure out, if you think, this is an underbluffed or overbluffed line.

Its been around 2 years, since I played any significant amount of hands at Zoom, but just seeing this overbet scream value to me. I think, it was Bart Hanson from Crushlivepoker, who recently told, he had been playing some 100NL Zoom during a trip outside the USA (cant play Stars from USA), and he kind of giggled about it, when he said, that the regs basically always had it, when the pot got big. This was in a 100NL game, and you are playing 5NL.

In theory the guy is supposed to have maybe as many as 50% bluffs, when he take this sizing, because his bluffs have equity. But in reality he probably have 10% bluffs or no bluffs at all. He either hit it on the turn with 88 or QTs, or he was planning to check-raise the flop, and since that did not work out, now he is trying an alternative line to stack you by overbetting both turn and river. If this analysis is correct, then there is absoutely no reason, why you need to pay him off.

 

[zuker]

3bet is OK preflop. You have strong enough hand against his range and can take pot without rake if he fold.
On flop with top pair and decent kicker we should preferably cbet.
Turn - hard decision. Is it draw (flush, straight) or made hand (AK, AJ, JJ)???
Fold is OK for me.

 

[Hermus]

I think you'll save yourself a lot of headache if you just 3-bet AQo at a 100% frequency against most regs and recreational players (who play a decent UTG or super wide opening range) only excluding the super nits you only see in low stakes fast-fold (VPIP of 10 or lower). Solvers also 3-bet this spot close to 100% of the time and randomising a 5% frequency adjustment is just not worth it in my opinion.

Nothing new on the rest of the hand because other people already gave some good tips.

 

[leeroy818]

I think you'll save yourself a lot of headache if you just 3-bet AQo at a 100% frequency against most regs and recreational players (who play a decent UTG or super wide opening range) only excluding the super nits you only see in low stakes fast-fold (VPIP of 10 or lower). Solvers also 3-bet this spot close to 100% of the time and randomising a 5% frequency adjustment is just not worth it in my opinion.

Nothing new on the rest of the hand because other people already gave some good tips.

In the ranges I'm playing at the moment, AQo is a fold in MP vs UTG. I definitely (as in this case) will 3bet vs an aggressive player / fish. But vs most regs in the zoom pools (who seem to play really tight!) I don't think the hand will perform that well / get me into some tough spots. On a regular cash table I'm 3betting AQo in this spot 100%.

 

[leeroy818]

If his overbet range is balanced, he's put you in a tough spot.

As played, I think folding the turn is too tight. He may very well be taking advantage of your perceived weakness on the flop. You can't check the flop with your hand only to fold to a bet on the turn.

Yeah, and I definitely didn't plan on folding to a bet on the turn, especially when the turn was fairly good for my hand. It was just the overbet which threw me. You don't see a lot of them at 5NL, especially on the turn!

 

[gustav197poker]

Zoom game is by nature much more aggressive. It was a clear bet on the flop. As played, on the turn you are behind 99 and maybe 88. JJ should 4-bet preflop or donk bet on this flop to get the value of all the AXs that you block.
On the turn there are not many floats that improved at rank V. Maybe the 2 combos: 89s. The rest should have a lot of fold equity, except the combos that hit the board. Which are unlikely, due to the positions played. You have a good blocker (Qh) that removes many values in range V. Which would allow you to collect money from draws of this texture. But probably in micros is best to call when you suspect this V has a wider range.
As for your decision to fold this overbet, you are not assigning the possibility of the villain having bluffs in his range. Which could be possible, since your range seems pretty weak when you check this wet flop.
Greetings.

 

[fundiver199]

It was just the overbet which threw me. You don't see a lot of them at 5NL, especially on the turn!

Which is a strong indication, that its probably skewed towards value. There are way more opportunities to bluff in poker than to make nut hands, so if people do something as a bluff, it will tend to happen more often