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Message: [QUOTE="gustav197poker, post: 5662615, member: 393841"] On the river the villain's bet is too small. Most of the time our call on the river will be unbalanced, because our range will not be strong enough to catch bluffs. I think the main issue here is whether we can turn our hand into a bluff, or do an exploitative fold and save money. To have a clearer idea we must characterize our villain. If we think BTN is a weak enough player to fold a hand after getting too involved in a spot, then perhaps the entire gameplay sequence is worth looking into a bit. In a first approximation we must say that this player has quite passive game patterns, although the sample is too small, this is a general trend that we can observe. He also seems to be a sticky player, which makes us think that perhaps the exploitative path and the consequent fold are more logical. Suppose we have seen very notorious situations or quite unbalanced folds on the part of this villain, we will begin to analyze. On the flop there are not many neutral hands in range V who would opt for a B / R line. In fact, the most probable hands that could follow this line are: AJ; A7 and A8. This is because these combos block combinations in the hero range like: KJ; J-T; J-9 J-8; J-7; 7-8; 9-8; 7-7; 8-8. And from range H, the call on the flop could be made up of high combinations: AK; AQ; QK. Which have the potential to generate fold equity from hands in range V such as 5-5: 6C; A-7: 16C; A-8: 16C; A-J: 12C = (50C) On the turn the villain's bet is value oriented. And on the river the board is paired. Clearly the texture of the board is not good for us. Now it beats us: 7-8: 16C; AT: 12C; KT: 12C; QT: 9C; JT: 9C; A9: 8C; K9: 8C; J9: 6C; T9: 6C; 44: 3C; TT: 3C; 99: 1C; 66: 3C. Total possible combos for V: 146. On the river we need to win 11% of the time in order for our bluff to be profitable since we don't have enough capacity to call. If we can assign at least in rank V, 2 hands from group 1 as AJ and A8 we have: 28/146 = 19.18% and in this case, our bluff would start to be profitable on the river. But again, this would be more viable in another scenario. For example, when the V has full stack, that we can establish a high frequency of fold equity, etc. Without these specific readings, the best idea is possibly the fold on the river. Greetings. [/QUOTE]

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