€400 NL HE Full Ring: Should you play this OESD aggressively?

[primrose]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Stakes

$2/$4

Table Format

Full (8-10 seats)

Currency

€

In this hand, I have UTG on a 9-handed table. I was slightly tilted so I'd have opened this no matter what, but I actually also think this open is good regardless because there was not a lot of 3betting on this table -- for the most part, everyone was happy to call preflop and play a lot of multiway pots.

I open to 12 (3BB). UTG+2, LJ, BN, and BB all call, so we're 5way.

Flop comes (Pot=62). I'm never leading here. It checks around to the BN, who makes it 36. BB folds and it's my turn.

My stack was just under 400 before this hand. BN covers. BN is a losing(?) reg who plays pretty unpredictably, but very much on the splashy side. However he also does this kind of thing a lot particularly on boards with low cards; I see him raise and bet this kind of texture all the time. So on the one hand he's not a great player to try to bluff, but on the other, he could be weak here. It goes both ways.

I think this is a genuinely difficult decision between calling, raising, and even folding. (We only have 6 clean outs since the diamonds bring in a flush, and there are still players behind us.) I'm still not sure what the most +EV play is. I think not a lot of people would fold, but that may be a more professional decision than calling, especially since we're also in the worst position for the remaining hand. And note that we've only invested 12€; we don't have to continue that often to make this open +EV.

But I decide for the raise. I make it 110, hoping to get a fold here. It folds around to the BN, who, after a bit of thinking, calls. Dang.

Turn is the (Pot=282, Stack≈260).

What now? Do we go for it?

Decision:

Spoiler

YES OF COURSE WE GO FOR IT THIS IS A FRIGGIN DIAMOND, LET'S GO!

(I don't think you can do the raise on the Flop and then not follow through if the flush comes in. Before we were representing only overpairs and sets; now we're representing overpairs, sets, and suited connectors and suited broadways and suited Aces. That's a tough thing to call against for Villain... unless he lead a flush draw on the Flop -- which unfortunately is entirely possible -- in which case we're getting always getting called and are drawing dead. Still, you have to jam.)

Rest of the hand:

Spoiler

No rest, villain folded. Well, my bluffs can't always go wrong!

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
Contrary to popular belief, small suited connectors are terrible hands to play in multiway pots especially out of position. They tend to get overflushed, they make a straight, when someone else has a flush, they make a counterfeited two pair, they make trips with a bad kicker and so on and so forth. Like small pairs they are basically junk and should be folded, unless you are in late position.

Flop
The fact, you are even considering to fold, when you flop an OESD, kind of illustrate the problem. But why are you opening preflop then, so either C-bet or check-raise.

Turn
He could have a hand like A9 of hearts, which will likely fold to a jam now. But a lot of his range after bet-calling the flop should be flushes, and you are drawing dead to those. So I would just check now and hope to get a free card. And if he bet, its a fold.

Spoiler
A diamond is a terrible card to bluff, when you dont hold one in your own hand to give up back-up equity or at least block the flush. But of course even a negative EV bluff will occationally work, and this was such a time.

 

[primrose]

Flop
The fact, you are even considering to fold, when you flop an OESD, kind of illustrate the problem. But why are you opening preflop then, so either C-bet or check-raise.

I was getting at this with the 'I only invested 12€' part; I think you can continue with only better than OESDs and still make this open profitable. The pot is already 60 so right away you only have to win it one time out of five, and implied odds mean you can probably go much lower than that. You could probably fold 90% of the time here if you make the remaining 10% count.

 

[primrose]

A diamond is a terrible card to bluff, when you dont hold one in your own hand to give up back-up equity or at least block the flush. But of course even a negative EV bluff will occationally work, and this was such a time.

This bluff is definitely positive EV. After you check-raise the flop, you have all of the flushes in your range. The most likely number of diamonds for villain to have is 0, the second most likely is 1, and even if it's 1, it won't matter much unless it's a high diamond because I could easily have high card diamonds. In total they're like, I don't know, 20% likely to have a high diamond or two diamonds, maybe, so 80% to not have that, in which case the bluff is very likely to work. Given the SPR and that we still have some outs, this bluff needs to work about 40% of the time to be profitable.

So, like, this is not even close. Once you get to the Turn, you must jam for sure. I think the Flop is the harder question here.

 

[Station_Master]

I agree with fundiver apart from the turn. Once you get here like this at spr 1 i think its a mandatory jam. Youd have to expect anything thats not a set or flush to fold and you still have redraw v a set