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Poker Strategy
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Cash Game Hand Analysis
€400 NL HE Full Ring: Maximizing Profit from an onstensibly lucky run-out
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[QUOTE="primrose, post: 7017214, member: 1036998"] This was another hand played in a casino. I don't recall having ever seen baldblackguy before but he seemed weak; yellowcollarguy is a player who's there occasionally and imo he's just very straight-forward, more or less just turns his hand face-up. I'm very happy playing against either of them; I don't think they're going to make my life difficult. Casino, [I][COLOR=#1515FC]Hold'em No Limit[/COLOR][/I] - §2/§4 (where § = €) - 9 players x (UTG): §20 (5 bb) xx (UTG+1): §20 (5 bb) xxx (MP): §20 (5 bb) xxxx (MP+1): §20 (5 bb) [B][COLOR=#C4302B]yellowcollarguy (LP): §600 (150 bb)[/COLOR][/B] xxxxx (CO): §20 (5 bb) xxxxxx (BU): §20 (5 bb) [B][COLOR=#C4302B]baldblackguy (SB): §550 (138 bb) me (BB): §700 (175 bb)[/COLOR] Pre-Flop:[/B] (§6) Hero (me) is BB with T[COLOR=#FF0000]♥[/COLOR] Q[COLOR=#FF0000]♥[/COLOR] [COLOR=#666666][I]4 players fold[/I][/COLOR], [COLOR=#C51F1F]yellowcollarguy (LP) raises to §14[/COLOR], [COLOR=#666666][I]2 players fold[/I][/COLOR], baldblackguy (SB) calls §12, [B]me (BB) calls §10 Flop:[/B] (§42) 3[COLOR=#FF0000]♥[/COLOR] 2[COLOR=#000000]♠[/COLOR] 4[COLOR=#FF0000]♥[/COLOR] [COLOR=#009B00](3 players)[/COLOR] baldblackguy (SB) checks, [B][COLOR=#C51F1F]me (BB) bets §34[/COLOR][/B], yellowcollarguy (LP) calls §34, baldblackguy (SB) calls §34 [B]Turn:[/B] (§144) K[COLOR=#000000]♠[/COLOR] [COLOR=#009B00](3 players)[/COLOR] baldblackguy (SB) checks, [B]me (BB) checks[/B], yellowcollarguy (LP) checks [B]River:[/B] (§144) 8[COLOR=#FF0000]♥[/COLOR] [COLOR=#009B00](3 players)[/COLOR] baldblackguy (SB) checks, [SPOILER][B][COLOR=#C51F1F]me (BB) bets §104[/COLOR][/B], yellowcollarguy (LP) calls §104, baldblackguy (SB) calls §104; I win the pot and baldblackguy shows the J[COLOR=#FF0000]♥[/COLOR] for almost certainly the J-high flush[/SPOILER] Preflop: this is a hand that ~everyone calls with, but I actually wouldn't hate a fold at all. [URL='https://www.cardschat.com/forum/cash-games-11/how-should-you-play-blinds-against-540849/']I think people defend way too much against large RFI sizes[/URL] and contrary to popular belief, you will not be struck by lightning if you fold a hand like QTs. The open here isn't that big, so I did make the call, but I genuinely think it's close. Note that baldblackguy checked the flop in the dark. On the Flop I decided to lead; I have a strong draw and the flop is arguably best for my range, so even in GTO world this should be okay (not that I really care). On the Turn I decided to check; I don't think I'm very likely to get folds here. Two calls against a big Flop bet mean someone likes their hand, especially the second caller. And people love chasing flushes. I think if you did bet here, it should be very big, like 1.3x pot; that sort of bet might have merit. Betting smaller I don't like (but feel free to disagree). On the River I make my hand, and I think against these types of players, checking is out of the question. So you have to bet, and I think the interesting question is, how big do you want to make it? 50% Pot? 70% Pot? 100% Pot? Maybe 150% pot? (If I do get raised here, I just fold without even feeling bad about it; like I said, I think these are two weak players, and a River raise is the nuts flush almost every time.) [/QUOTE]
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€400 NL HE Full Ring: Maximizing Profit from an onstensibly lucky run-out
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