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€400 NL HE Full Ring: Can I get Villain to fold top pair on this board?
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[QUOTE="primrose, post: 7140811, member: 1036998"] In this hand, I'm in the CO with :kd4: :10c4: and the HJ limps. I make a standard raise to 16. BN flats and HJ calls. BN is a (probably losing) losing regular, high VPIP preflop, pretty nitty postflop, rarely bluffs. Also someone that I have a history with and who tends to give me a lot of credit when I bet, I don't think I've ever had to show him a bluff. Flop comes :qd4: :2h4: :4d4: (Pot=54). HJ checks. I check. BN bets 20. HJ folds. I could just fold here, but BN could take a stab here with any pocket pair, maybe a bad Queen, maybe a flush draw. And I haven't made any big plays this session. Also I have the backdoor diamonds. I decide to go for a raise to 80. HJ calls -- not what I was hoping for. Now they probably have the Queen. Turn comes :5c4: (Pot=214). Not a good card. No diamond. No King. I could give up here, but I think Villain will fold most Queens if I barrel, and a bluff doesn't have to work that often. I bet 110. Villain thinks for a bit then calls. Not what I was hoping for. River comes :4h4: (Pot=434). Well, this situation is not ideal. What now? My action: [SPOILER]I bet 180.[/SPOILER] Result in case I decided to bet: [SPOILER]Villain thinks for a while then calls. I wasn't happy about showing my hand but if I don't, Villain doesn't have to show his, and I want to know what I was called by. If it's worse than AQ, I need to know. So I showed. Villain showed :ah4: :qs4: .[/SPOILER] Thoughts: [SPOILER] I think the Flop raise is good. The Turn bet is probably still good, I think everything below KQ is pretty likely to fold, and KQ could fold as well, and even AQ is not out of the question. And Villain is pretty loose preflop, so there could be a ton of Queens. The River bet, however, was probably quite bad. Opponent is pretty likely to have AQ here and they could actually have a low set as well -- not super likely since he never raised, but possible. Straight is quite unlikely. I'd have kind of expected AQ to fold to a tripe-barrel given this particular player, so I'm not too mad at myself, but I guess folding top pair is just too hard. For me this hand was pretty frustrating because I've been running badly in cash for a while (good in tournaments, but not cash) and today was a pretty lucky day. Even after this hand I ended up moderately up. If i just hadn't done this triple-barrel, I'd have had a really excellent day. This hand is sort of reminiscent of [URL='https://www.cardschat.com/forum/tournament-hand-analysis-51/100-10-nl-he-mtt-barrel-549264/']the triple-barrel hand in a tournament that I posted a while ago[/URL]; however it is a significantly worse triple-barrel spot for several reasons, the most important one being that my opponent didn't really cap their range. In that hand Villain most likely had top-pair-decent-but-not-top-kicker, whereas in this case it was possible for Villain to have top pair top kicker... and unfortunately they did. Anyway, I think most people tend to select pretty heavily for which hands they post, and I wanted to not do that, so here's a hand where I did something that looks pretty reckless and unnecessary and didn't work at all. [/SPOILER] [/QUOTE]
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€400 NL HE Full Ring: Can I get Villain to fold top pair on this board?
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