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Message: [QUOTE="primrose, post: 6986200, member: 1036998"] This was a hand played in a casino against an Asian regular (actually the same guy from [URL='https://www.cardschat.com/forum/cash-game-hand-analysis-50/400-nl-he-full-ring-pocket-539258/']the first hand I posted here[/URL]). He has the typical weaknesses; plays too many hands, doesn't look enough at position, doesn't like folding, etc., but nothing extreme. Hand is reconstructed from memory Hero has :jh4: :jd4: on the BN with a stack of about 700. Villain is in the HJ with a gigantic stack, over 1000. (All of those are in €.) Preflop there are three limpers, including Villain. Hero raises to 22 (5.5BB). Everyone except Villain folds; Villain calls. (Pot = 58) Flop comes :ad4: :5h4: :3d4: . Villain checks. I don't have an overpair and Villain could have an Ace, so I check. (Pot = 58) Turn comes :2c4: . Villain checks. I think I likely have the best hand now, so I value bet 30. Villain calls. (Pot = 118) River comes :7d4: . Villain bets 80. What now? On first glance, seems like an obvious fold -- I have a middle pair and there's an overcard and a flush draw and a straight draw. But thinking more about this--- - Given how the hand went and the board texture, I don't think Villain has the Ace here. (Like, yes, I probably don't have the straight or flush but I don't think Villain thinks that far; I think they see a dangerous board here and wouldn't value bet an Ace.) - The 7 looks scary but does not actually help with the straight; you need the 4 either way. How many 4s does Villain have here? - Villain could probably have a flush, but there aren't that many combinations. And I'm not even sure they'd play a flushdraw so passively. (I should know this given how many hands I've played with him, but alas I don't.) So, I reasoned at the time, they actually have a lot of combinations of one pair (each of which is 15 combinations rather than just 1 from the flush draw)? Then I made the mistake of not actually counting them. Looking at it now, actually there aren't that many, but there's 65, 76, maybe 87, plus various pocket pairs. A lot of two pairs, which also beat me. So maybe it is a fold, But even then, I need to be right less than 1/3 of the time here, so if there twice as many combinations that I lose to than combinations that I beat, it's still a narrow call. Also, wouldn't a straight or flush bet larger? If we discount them, do we then have the odds for a call? Idk, it was difficult, but I decided to make the call. What do you think; is this justifiable or did I overthink it? Villain had [SPOILER]a set with :5d4: :5c4: [/SPOILER]. [/QUOTE]

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