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[QUOTE="ChuckTs, post: 418925, member: 467"]
So:

QQ possible considering he's 50/1.  He 'never' raises PF anyway.  JJ very unlikely - is he really going to 3-bet JJ on that flop and turn with you showing so much strength?

22 for a lower set - also possible, but he'd probably reraise the flop

Q-anything. Betting and raising QT or QK or something like it.  Fairly possible, but his bets show too much strength for this to be really plausible.

Q2/Q3/Q6 for two pair.  He'd likely reraise the flop with the first two, and having 50% VP$IP, I wouldn't be surprised if he limped utg with any of the three.

QJ for top pair and flush draw, then 2pair on the river.  I think this is pretty likely.

45s - Likely aswell.  You said that you don't see this guy limping UTG with it, Tammy, but you have to keep in mind that this guy is 50/1.  He's pretty damn loose.  His betting explains it perfectly IMO.

Complete bluff - I don't think we can apply the minimum of %10 bluff here that Harrington suggests.  Sure maybe a busted flush draw, but in LHE, you really have little chance of bluffing a capper out of a pot, and I don't see it happening here.

I'm not going to do an EV thing on this, but I think they're all roughly equal in terms of probability that they're what OP is holding.  With 4 possible situations that you can beat out of 6, I think this is a cap.
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