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$25 NLHE 6-max: AA sq. I'm guessing Ineeded to bet this flop...
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[QUOTE="c0rnBr34d, post: 5895495, member: 394557"] If we just take generic ranges here and look at a top 10% range for his 3B he has 133 combos: 77+, ATo+, KJo+, QTs+, K9s+, A8s+ If we estimate he's folding the bottom 40% of those combos to a 4B then he has 80 combos left.: 88+, AJo+, QJs+,KTs+, ATs+ If we go with the even more sticky 25% 4B figure he has as many as 100 combos: 77+, QTs+, KTs+, A9s+, AJo+ The thing is, at what point can he really fold post flop? For a player that sticky, pretty much his whole range can call the 1/4 pot bet. He's sitting a larger stack too so may be in a more sticky, more bullying mood than standard. If he's only got 80 combos his value range is 88, JJ, KQs, AK (12 out of 80 combos). If he has 100 combos it's still probably only adding 4 more value combos of KJs and KTs so like 16 out of 100 combos beat us. I'm fine with going with it here when SPR is so low and we have showdown value. When SPR is this low we are usually just stacking off or folding and when we have this large of a range advantage I don't see how stacking off can be that bad. In contrast, against a more nitty and probably more common range of QQ+, AK in a 4 bet pot we now only beat QQ and should be looking to get to showdown as cheaply as possible since we chop one combo of AA and win vs 6 combos of QQ while losing vs the 5 combos of AK, KK in this scenario (6 wins, 5 losses, and a chop combo wise). [/QUOTE]
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$25 NLHE 6-max: AA sq. I'm guessing Ineeded to bet this flop...
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