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Message: [QUOTE="Bombjack, post: 427108, member: 11914"] Some interesting points for discussion Twizzy. Fold top pair on the flop to a bluff or smaller pair (what the second limper had - he folded when I raised), and a draw that probably doesn't even exist? Sounds weak-tight to me. I'd be up against at least 3 others with the big blind in, and no-one's shown any strength. Harrington (Vol 1 p. 195) says with 3 limpers from the button you're in great shape and should call with all suited connectors down to 5-4. He doesn't say what to do with 2 limpers, but the pot alone is offering me 3.5:1 on my bet, not counting implied odds. I didn't just want to represent strength from the button... you're never going to have the best hand pre-flop with 8-9 if anyone holds a ten or better. It's dependent on hitting a good flop, as with all suited connector hands. He wouldn't need runner runner if he has 2 clubs in his hand? I made a pot-sized bet, which is quite strong. Are you suggesting an overbet? If he's on a draw I [I]want [/I]him to call with incorrect odds, which is why I don't just go all-in. Plus I'm risking fewer chips if anyone has a stronger hand like a set. If I were re-raised here I'd have to throw it away, but there's no reason to think I don't have the best hand on the flop. When the first bettor has folded and I'm left against the Big Blind, he could have any 2 cards. He caught some part of the flop or is on a draw, which is why he called the flop raise (elaborate bluff planning unlikely at this level). With 2 clubs on the flop it's much easier to imagine he has 2 clubs, and in fact this is much more likely from the number of card combinations than holding exactly 6-7: Chance he has 2 clubs is 11/47*10/46 = 5.1%. Chance he has 6-7 is 8/47*4/46 = 1.48% So flush draw is over 3 times more likely than the straight draw. Chance he has 22 or 33 is 2*(3/47*2/46) = 0.56% Plus in the situtation where he has called holding top pair or 2 pair, and has 2 pair by the turn. Chance he has any given 2-pair hand is 6/47*3/46 = 0.83% There are 4 of these hands (8-2, 8-5, 5-2 or 8-9) making the chance him holding one 3.3% - over twice as likely as 6-7. I have to bet the turn with my 2 pair to protect against the flush draw. When he raises, the pot is at $15.75, it's $5 to call and I have $10.05 left. The raise decreases likelihood of flush draw (although I've seen all-ins in this situation) so he's on either 2 pair, a straight, or trips. 2 pair (3.3%) is more likely from the above than straight or trips (2.0%), and I beat any other 2 pair, so I think a raise is correct. We'd presumably be all-in on the river whatever happens, so I might as well put it all in now. There's also an outside chance he's been slow-playing a high pair, which I beat. [/QUOTE]

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