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Message: [QUOTE="c0rnBr34d, post: 5948473, member: 394557"] Define higher percentage, how often do we expect to see Ax here? If we look at range charts and assume BTN is opening 25% of hands for example then 126/372 of those combos contain an Ace, that's 38% of the time. If we narrow it to top 20% hands then the number goes up slightly to 40%. I think it's fairly safe to remove some of the strongest hands from both ranges because SB flatted twice and BTN did not 4B. So if we just remove 14 combos of AA and half of the AK combos (we block the other half) those numbers decline to 31% and 36% respectively. Another mistake that occurs often at 2NL is players donk leading top pair hands into the PFR. This somewhat discounts a portion of SBs Ax. I realize you could be making the argument that range construction for these fish are Ace heavy so they have more Ax than they should. If they are fishy enough to overcall with too much Ax they are also probably fishy enough to lead with a good portion of it. So if we just go with about 33% for each player and pretend the ranges dont effect each other for estimation then 1/3 of the time neither of them have an Ace. If we were first to act I think it's much closer but given all the circumstances if we can scoop a 27 BB pot for a 10 BB cbet before shutting down even 33% of the time that's a huge win. I guess it comes down to how often if we check flop will either V bet into us. Are you calling a 1/2 pot bet from either BTN on the flop or SB on the turn with action behind after the flop checks through? I just feel like we under realize our equity often once we check flop because along with all the Ax we now end up laying down the best hand against 87s, 99, 88, 77, or air ball hands with tiny equity against aggressive players like T9s that realize they have to bet to win and missed but no one seems interested in the pot. So this part again goes back to the reads and stats. But in general it takes a better player to continue on the flop without an Ace than to stab at it once the PFR checks the flop. Again, super over simplification but let's look at expected value when we cbet 10 BB. EV = (+37 BB * 33% when we win) - (10 BB * 67% when we lose) = 12.2 - 6.7 = +5.5 BB [/QUOTE]

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