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$2 NLHE Full Ring: straight crushed on the river
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[QUOTE="teh_colonel_saigon, post: 5637551, member: 107240"] I wanted to jump in because this is a very interesting spot. There are many point to learn from here. [B] Preflop: [/B]I also play 6-max insted of full-ring. 77 is a decent hand but it is very inflexible, especially out of position. It is a 6-max UTG open, but you are one seat shy of that. Just think about the players at your table, how often they call you/3-bet you and how profitable you can make this open in the long run. It's your call! -SB flat calls. We should already be putting him on a middling and speculative range. [B]Flop: [/B]SB donk leads for pot. Donk bets are typically polarized imo... either with top pair + or with a draw. This fits into what we've assigned SB preflop, so assuming SB is tight-ish this is the range I've assigned him: [B]SB's value donks:[/B] A9s, K9s, 9Ts, 88, 66, 57s, 89s... a more speculative hand (that still beats us) will be added here which is 87s. Value combos: 23 [B]SB's 'bluffy' donks:[/B] JTs, 67s, 56s, A5s, A7s Bluff combos: 16c This may be stretching a bit, so adjust based on player reads. But even in this scenario, V is tilted towards value over bluffs. [B]So should we call?[/B]As you mentioned, we only have to be good 33% of the time. we currently beat 41% of his combos and have outs to beat the rest. This is where we talk about stack sizes! If V is an aggro fish, we certainly have implied odds to call. However, both of you are short-stacked, so your investment is capped on its returns. I would say this: if effective stacks were bigger, its a slam-dunk call. As is, I think it is just a marginal call. Let's look at this assuming you would fold to his turn barrel if a 5 or a T doesn't come. .16 x 58bb (you stack him if you hit) - .84 x 7bb (your flop investment) = +3.4bb So assuming you can stack him (and he doesn't suck out) this is what you can expect to win. So it really depends on V's tendencies- is he going to barrel pot-sized bets with a draw? Is he going to fold to a turn shove? Or once he's called on the flop, will he slow down on the turn? These are the nuanced parts that can affect the EV of this call. Overall, WP [/QUOTE]
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$2 NLHE Full Ring: straight crushed on the river
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